Baltimore Orioles vs San Diego Padres Prediction – 9/3/2025
The Baltimore Orioles and San Diego Padres will close out a three-game series against one another at Petco Park on Wednesday. The Orioles have won the first two games of this series and will look to secure a sweep on the road. Before the Padres try to salvage a game from this three-game set, continue reading to get my breakdown of this contest and my Orioles vs Padres prediction.
Our Orioles vs Padres Pick
- Pick: San Diego Padres Moneyline
- Confidence: 4/5
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Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Baltimore Orioles vs San Diego Padres
- Date & Time: Wednesday, September 3, 2025, 4:10 PM ET
- Starting Pitchers: Cade Povich (BAL) vs Nestor Cortes (SD)
- Stadium: Petco Park, San Diego, CA
- Broadcast: SDPA and MASN2
Key Storylines
Pitching Matchup
Cade Povich continues to seek stability for the Orioles. He enters with a record of 2–7 and an ERA of 5.04. He’s struggled to pitch deep into games and may prompt early bullpen involvement. Opposing him will be San Diego’s Nestor Cortes. Cortes has posted a 5.06 ERA this season but has a career 2.20 ERA against Baltimore. Petco’s home setting may favor Cortes but both pitchers are evenly-matched so far this year.
Key Players
- Orioles: Emmanuel Rivera drove in four runs for the Orioles in yesterday’s win and role players like him could be key in this game as well.
- Padres: Luis Arraez hit a home run for the Padres to generate their only offense on Tuesday and he will try to make an impact again in this contest.
Recent Team Streaks
- The Orioles have won two games in a row and three of their last four heading into this series finale.
- Baltimore has dropped three games in a row and four of their last five.
Best Player Props
| Player | Prop Type |
|---|---|
| Gunnar Henderson | Over 0.5 Home Runs |
| Manny Machado | Over 1.5 Total Bases |
| Nestor Cortes | Over 5.5 Strikeouts |
Betting Trends & H2H
- The Orioles are 2-0 against the Padres so far this season.
- This is the final game of the regular season series between Baltimore and San Diego.
- Both of the games between these teams have gone under their totals this season.
Orioles vs Padres Model Projection
Score Projection: Padres 5 – Orioles 4
Win Probability: Padres 56%, Orioles 44%
Final Thoughts
The Padres should have the upper hand in this series finale against the Orioles. Nestor Cortes has allowed three or fewer runs in four of his five starts since returning to the Padres rotation. He should continue his upward trajectory here against an Orioles team that is 32-39 on the road for the year. I’ll take the Padres to win this game on the moneyline and more risk-tolerant bettors will want to lay the runline with San Diego in this spot.
