Baltimore Orioles VS Pittsburgh Pirates Betting Pick & Preview – 04/07/2024

Baltimore Orioles vs Pittsburgh Pirates Overview

• Date: April 7, 2024
• Venue: PNC Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Dean Kremer - Orioles
  • Marco Gonzales - Pirates
• Run Line: Orioles -1.5 135, Pirates 1.5 -155
• Money Line: Orioles -125, Pirates 105
• Total (Over/Under):8.5 -120

Baltimore Orioles vs Pittsburgh Pirates Win Probabilities

Implied Win %:

• Baltimore Orioles - 53%
• Pittsburgh Pirates - 47%

Projected Win %:

• Baltimore Orioles - 52.01%
• Pittsburgh Pirates - 47.99%

Baltimore Orioles vs Pittsburgh Pirates Game Preview & Prediction

In a highly anticipated Interleague matchup, the Pittsburgh Pirates are set to take on the Baltimore Orioles at PNC Park on April 7, 2024. The Pirates, with a stellar record of 7-2 this season, are having a great campaign so far. On the other hand, the Orioles have also been impressive with a 5-3 record.

The Pirates will have the home-field advantage as they look to continue their winning streak. They are projected to start the left-handed pitcher Marco Gonzales, who has been performing well this season with an excellent ERA of 1.80. However, his 5.22 xFIP suggests that he may have been lucky and could regress in future performances.

The Orioles will send out right-handed pitcher Dean Kremer, who has struggled with a 5.06 ERA. However, his 3.70 xFIP indicates that he has been unlucky and could potentially perform better in upcoming games.

In terms of offensive performance, the Pirates rank as the 8th best team in MLB, highlighting their strong batting lineup. However, their team batting average ranks 26th, indicating room for improvement. The Orioles also boast a solid offense, ranking 9th in MLB.

When it comes to the bullpens, the Pirates have the advantage as they are considered the 5th best bullpen in MLB, according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings. The Orioles, on the other hand, rank 23rd in this category.

Looking at the betting odds, the Pirates enter the game as the underdogs with a moneyline set at +105, giving them a 47% implied win probability. The Orioles, with a moneyline of -125, have a 53% implied win probability.

Based on the projections, the Pirates are expected to score an average of 4.10 runs, while the Orioles have a slightly higher projection of 4.40 runs.

With both teams having strong seasons, this game promises to be a close and exciting matchup. The Pirates will rely on their potent offense and solid bullpen, while the Orioles will look to their talented lineup to secure a victory. Baseball fans and sports bettors alike will be eagerly watching this game unfold.

Quick Takes Baltimore Orioles:

Dean Kremer has averaged 91.9 adjusted pitches per outing since the start of last season, ranking in the 81st percentile.

• Pitchers who average more pitches per game are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

The Baltimore Orioles bullpen profiles as the 8th-worst in the league, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes Pittsburgh Pirates:

The leading projection system (THE BAT) forecasts Marco Gonzales in the 8th percentile when assessing his strikeout talent.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.

Bryan Reynolds's batting average skill is projected to be in the 92nd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available. Batting average is the most common measure of a player's ability to generate hits.

Henry Davis pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (36.5% — 94th percentile) and will be challenged by the league's 9th-deepest LF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Over in 77 of their last 138 games (+14.10 Units / 9% ROI)
• The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Moneyline in 47 of their last 73 away games (+26.95 Units / 31% ROI)
• Dean Kremer has hit the Strikeouts Under in his last 5 away games (+5.15 Units / 83% ROI)

Final Score Prediction: Baltimore Orioles 4.69 vs Pittsburgh Pirates 4.25

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