Baltimore Orioles vs Oakland Athletics Prediction, Preview, & Odds – 7/5/2024

Baltimore Orioles vs Oakland Athletics Details

• Date: July 5, 2024
• Venue: Oakland Coliseum
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Albert Suarez - Orioles
  • Hogan Harris - Athletics

Betting Odds

Baltimore Orioles vs Oakland Athletics Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Baltimore Orioles vs Oakland Athletics Betting Preview

The Baltimore Orioles and Oakland Athletics are set to kick off their series on July 5, 2024, at the Oakland Coliseum. While the Orioles are having a stellar season with a 55-32 record, the Athletics' 33-56 record tells a different story. Baltimore's high-powered offense, ranked 2nd in MLB, will square off against an Athletics team that has struggled offensively, ranking 25th overall.

Both teams will send out pitchers who have shown some luck this season according to their peripheral stats. Oakland's Hogan Harris, a lefty, carries a solid ERA of 3.18 but his 4.70 xFIP suggests he's been fortunate. Harris projects to pitch just 4.8 innings today, allowing 2.8 earned runs on average. His last outing on June 29 was shaky, going only 3 innings and giving up 3 earned runs. On the other side, Baltimore will start Albert Suarez, a right-hander with an impressive 2.43 ERA but a 4.68 xFIP indicating luck has been on his side too. Suarez projects to go 5.1 innings, allowing 2.6 earned runs on average.

One intriguing matchup will be Harris's high-flyball tendency (40% FB%) against Baltimore's power-packed lineup, which leads MLB in home runs. This could spell trouble for Harris and the A's, especially considering the Orioles' Gunnar Henderson, who has been phenomenal this season with a .289 batting average and a .986 OPS.

Despite their poor record, the Athletics did manage a shutout win against the Angels on July 4, which could give them some momentum. Meanwhile, the Orioles are coming off a 7-3 loss to the Mariners, where they were favored but failed to deliver.

The projections from THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, give Baltimore a 56% chance to win, but there might be some value in betting on Oakland. The A's are significant underdogs with a +155 moneyline, translating to an implied win probability of 38%. Given that the projections see a 44% chance for Oakland, bettors might find value in backing the underdogs in this matchup.

Quick Takes Baltimore Orioles:

Recording 14.8 outs per outing this year on average, Albert Suarez checks in at the 19th percentile.

• A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.

As it relates to his home runs, Gunnar Henderson has had positive variance on his side this year. His 40.2 HR per 600 plate appearances mark has been inflated compared to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 25.1.

• xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.

The Baltimore Orioles have been the 3rd-luckiest offense in Major League Baseball this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to hit worse in the future

• When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Quick Takes Oakland Athletics:

Due to his reverse platoon split, Hogan Harris figures to be at an advantage matching up with 7 batters in the projected lineup of the opposite hand in today's outing.

• A pitcher with a reverse platoon split will perform better against opposite-handed hitters (i.e. a right-handed pitcher will be better against a left-handed hitter). Holding this advantage against several hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.

J.J. Bleday has negatively regressed with his Barrel% lately; his 8.2% seasonal rate has lowered to 0% in the last week.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

The Oakland Athletics bullpen ranks as the 7th-best in the majors, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Oakland Athletics have hit the Game Total Under in 19 of their last 29 games (+7.95 Units / 25% ROI)
• The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Run Line in 46 of their last 81 games (+18.40 Units / 19% ROI)
• Tyler Soderstrom has hit the Home Runs Over in 5 of his last 15 games (+18.20 Units / 121% ROI)

Baltimore Orioles vs Oakland Athletics Prediction

Final Score: Baltimore Orioles 4.85 vs Oakland Athletics 4.34

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