Baltimore Orioles vs New York Yankees Prediction – 6/22/2025

On June 22, 2025, the New York Yankees will host the Baltimore Orioles at Yankee Stadium for the third game of their series. The Yankees, currently 44-32, are enjoying a strong season and sit in a favorable position in the American League East. In contrast, the Orioles, with a record of 33-43, are struggling and have not found their rhythm this year.

In their last matchup, the Yankees showcased their offensive prowess, defeating the Orioles decisively. With the Yankees ranked 3rd in MLB for offensive performance and 2nd in home runs, they are expected to capitalize on their power against a struggling Baltimore pitching staff. Will Warren, projected to start for New York, is seen as an above-average pitcher, ranking 64th among approximately 350 starters. Although his ERA of 4.83 suggests some struggles, his 3.02 xFIP indicates he has been somewhat unlucky and could improve moving forward.

Dean Kremer, slated to take the mound for Baltimore, has had his share of difficulties, posting a 4.80 ERA, which is below average. While Kremer has displayed good control with a low walk rate, he faces a Yankees lineup that excels at drawing walks, potentially neutralizing one of his strengths. The projections suggest Kremer will allow a high number of hits and earned runs, which could be detrimental against a potent Yankees offense.

With a high game total of 9.5 runs, the Yankees are favored with a moneyline of -185, reflecting their strong position in this matchup. The Orioles, on the other hand, are underdogs at +160, as they continue to seek consistency in their performance. This game presents an opportunity for the Yankees to solidify their standing while the Orioles look to turn their season around.

Quick Takes Baltimore Orioles:

Dean Kremer is an extreme flyball pitcher (35.3% FB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) and will be disadvantaged pitching in the #6 HR venue among all major league stadiums today.

• This pitcher's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Cedric Mullins has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this year (51% of the time), but he is projected to bat 7th on the lineup card today.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Cedric Mullins pulls many of his flyballs (36.6% — 94th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards MLB's 7th-shallowest RF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes New York Yankees:

The Baltimore Orioles have 6 batters in the projected batting order that will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Will Warren in today's game, which is especially troublesome given his large platoon split.

• Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Ben Rice has seen a big gain in his exit velocity this season; just compare his 93.7-mph average to last season's 90-mph mark.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

The New York Yankees projected offense projects as the 4th-best of all teams on the slate in terms of overall offensive skill.

• A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Game Trends

• The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Under in 41 of their last 67 games (+15.82 Units / 21% ROI)
• The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Game Total Under in 27 of their last 39 away games (+14.73 Units / 34% ROI)
• Aaron Judge has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 7 of his last 8 games (+5.80 Units / 59% ROI)

Baltimore Orioles vs New York Yankees Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Baltimore Orioles 4.69, New York Yankees 5.8

• Date: June 22, 2025
• Venue: Yankee Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Dean Kremer - Orioles
  • Will Warren - Yankees

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.