Baltimore Orioles vs New York Yankees Prediction – 6/21/2025

As the New York Yankees prepare to face the Baltimore Orioles on June 21, 2025, they find themselves in a favorable position, boasting a solid record of 43-32 this season, compared to the Orioles' 33-42. The Yankees lost the opening game of this series, but will look to rebound thanks to their dominant, 2nd-ranked offense in MLB against an average Orioles team.

On the mound, the Yankees will start Clarke Schmidt, who has shown promise this season, evidenced by his 3.16 ERA and a Power Ranking of 56th among approximately 350 pitchers. However, his 4.08 xFIP suggests that he may have been a bit lucky this year, indicating potential regression in performance. Schmidt projects to pitch 5.2 innings while allowing 2.7 earned runs on average, although his ability to strike out 5.4 batters per game could be a key advantage against the Orioles' lineup.

Zach Eflin takes the hill for the Orioles, bringing a 4.81 ERA into this matchup. Despite being ranked 79th in the Power Rankings, his 6-3 record indicates he has found some success. Eflin's low walk rate of 3.8 BB% could pose challenges for the Yankees, who currently lead MLB in walks drawn. He projects to pitch 5.5 innings but is expected to allow 3.2 earned runs, which could keep the Orioles competitive.

Given the Yankees' strong offensive capabilities and their impressive bullpen, ranked 4th in MLB, they are favored to win this game. With an implied team total of 5.34 runs, the Yankees' offense should be able to exploit the opportunities presented by Eflin's pitching struggles. Meanwhile, the Orioles will need a standout performance from their offense, which ranks 18th overall, to stay in the game.

Quick Takes Baltimore Orioles:

Despite conventional wisdom, fastballs are generally a pitcher's least effective pitch. Zach Eflin has gone to his off-speed and breaking balls 6.7% more often this year (69.4%) than he did last season (62.7%).

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

Cedric Mullins is likely to have an edge against every reliever for the game's entirety, since the bullpen of the New York Yankees has just 1 same-handed RP.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

It may be sensible to expect improved performance for the Baltimore Orioles offense in future games, considering that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) views them as the 5th-unluckiest offense in the league this year.

• When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Quick Takes New York Yankees:

The New York Yankees outfield defense projects as the 2nd-worst among all the teams on the slate today.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.

Typically, hitters like DJ LeMahieu who hit a lot of groundballs generally hit worse when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of groundballs such as Zach Eflin.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

The New York Yankees bullpen grades out as the 3rd-best in baseball, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Under in 37 of their last 59 games (+15.12 Units / 23% ROI)
• The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Game Total Under in 26 of their last 38 away games (+13.73 Units / 32% ROI)
• Aaron Judge has hit the RBIs Under in 6 of his last 7 games (+4.80 Units / 45% ROI)

Baltimore Orioles vs New York Yankees Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Baltimore Orioles 5, New York Yankees 5.23

• Date: June 21, 2025
• Venue: Yankee Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Zach Eflin - Orioles
  • Clarke Schmidt - Yankees

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