Baltimore Orioles vs New York Yankees Pick – 6/20/2025

On June 20, 2025, the New York Yankees will host the Baltimore Orioles at Yankee Stadium for the first game of a critical series. The Yankees are currently enjoying a strong season with a record of 43-31, firmly in contention within the American League East. In contrast, the Orioles sit at 32-42, struggling to find consistency.

Max Fried, projected to start for the Yankees, has been nothing short of spectacular this season. With a 9-2 record and an impressive 1.89 ERA, Fried ranks as the 4th best starting pitcher in MLB according to the leading MLB projection system. Although his xFIP of 3.09 suggests he may have been somewhat fortunate, his low walk rate of 5.4% positions him well against the Orioles' offense, which ranks 5th in the league for fewest walks drawn.

Tomoyuki Sugano, set to take the mound for Baltimore, has had a decent season with a 5-4 record and a solid 3.38 ERA. However, his xFIP of 4.40 indicates he may be due for some regression. Sugano's low walk rate of 4.3% could neutralize some of the Yankees' strengths, as they lead the league in drawing walks.

Offensively, the Yankees boast the 2nd best lineup in MLB, particularly excelling in home runs with a ranking of 2nd. Meanwhile, the Orioles rank 18th overall, with their batting average at a disappointing 21st. This disparity gives the Yankees a clear edge heading into this matchup, reflected in their strong betting odds, with a moneyline of -230 and an implied team total of 5.39 runs. The Game Total is set at 9.0 runs, indicating expectations for a high-scoring affair.

Quick Takes Baltimore Orioles:

The Baltimore Orioles infield defense profiles as the 3rd-best out of every team playing today.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.

Gunnar Henderson has struggled with his Barrel% lately; his 7.2% seasonal rate has fallen to 0% in the last two weeks.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

The Baltimore Orioles have 4 bats in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Gary Sanchez, Coby Mayo, Colton Cowser, Ramon Laureano).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Quick Takes New York Yankees:

Max Fried is an extreme groundball pitcher (51.9% GB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT), which should make him somewhat immune to the dangers of pitching in Yankee Stadium — the #6 HR venue in the league — in this game.

• This pitcher's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-expected performance.

DJ LeMahieu has seen a big increase in his exit velocity recently; just compare his 97.4-mph average in the last 7 days to his seasonal 91.9-mph EV.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the New York Yankees' bullpen projects as the 4th-best among all major league teams.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Under in 20 of their last 28 games at home (+12.17 Units / 39% ROI)
• The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Game Total Under in 21 of their last 30 away games (+12.03 Units / 36% ROI)
• Jazz Chisholm has hit the Singles Over in 9 of his last 15 games at home (+7.65 Units / 51% ROI)

Baltimore Orioles vs New York Yankees Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Baltimore Orioles 3.8, New York Yankees 5.66

• Date: June 20, 2025
• Venue: Yankee Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Tomoyuki Sugano - Orioles
  • Max Fried - Yankees

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