Baltimore Orioles vs New York Mets Prediction, Preview, & Odds – 8/19/2024

• Date: August 19, 2024
• Venue: Citi Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Trevor Rogers - Orioles
  • David Peterson - Mets

Betting Odds

Baltimore Orioles vs New York Mets Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Baltimore Orioles vs New York Mets Betting Preview

In this upcoming matchup on August 19, 2024, the New York Mets will host the Baltimore Orioles in what promises to be an intriguing Interleague contest. The Mets, currently at 64-60, find themselves battling to stay competitive, while the Orioles boast a strong 73-52 record, clearly positioning themselves as a playoff threat. Both teams displayed contrasting fortunes in their last outings, with the Mets losing to the Miami Marlins while the Orioles got a win over the Boston Red Sox.

The Mets are projected to start David Peterson, who has had a solid season with a 3.04 ERA, although an xFIP of 4.55 suggests regression could be looming. Peterson’s 7-1 win/loss record is impressive, but he has struggled with walks, sitting at an 11.0 BB%. With the 1st ranked Orioles offense ready to attack, it could be a challenging day for Peterson. The Orioles will counter with Trevor Rogers, whose struggles this season have been evident with a dismal 2-11 record and a 4.89 ERA. Rogers is projected to allow around 3.1 earned runs and 5.6 hits today, problematic numbers against a Mets lineup ranked 9th in MLB.

Offensively, the Mets have showcased their power, ranking 4th in home runs, and Mark Vientos has been particularly hot lately, providing a spark with 8 hits and 2 home runs over the past week. Meanwhile, the Orioles' offense, ranking 2nd overall, features standout performances from hitters like Gunnar Henderson, who has recently shined with 4 home runs in a week.

With a Game Total set at 8.5 runs, this matchup is projected to remain close, especially considering the Mets’ moneyline is currently at -130. As both teams prepare for this series opener, the stakes feel high, making for an exciting day at Citi Field.

Quick Takes Baltimore Orioles:

Tallying 15 outs per outing this year on average, Trevor Rogers falls in the 24th percentile.

• A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.

Austin Slater has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this year (70% of the time), but he is projected to bat 6th on the lineup card in today's game.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Anthony Santander pulls a lot of his flyballs (40.4% — 98th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the game's 4th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes New York Mets:

David Peterson has used his sinker 6.1% more often this year (30.7%) than he did last season (24.6%).

• Sinkers are the easiest pitches to hit and generate the fewest strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his sinker more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.

Jose Iglesias's average exit velocity has dropped off in recent games; his 85.6-mph seasonal EV has fallen off to 76-mph over the last 7 days.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

It may be best to expect worse results for the New York Mets offense going forward, given that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) views them as the 6th-luckiest offense in the league this year.

• When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Game Trends

• The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 24 of their last 33 games at home (+13.95 Units / 35% ROI)
• The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Run Line in 26 of their last 41 away games (+13.55 Units / 27% ROI)
• Mark Vientos has hit the Home Runs Over in 7 of his last 23 games at home (+16.60 Units / 72% ROI)

Baltimore Orioles vs New York Mets Prediction

Final Score: Baltimore Orioles 4.24 vs New York Mets 5.05

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