Baltimore Orioles vs New York Mets Prediction & Picks 8/21/2024

• Date: August 21, 2024
• Venue: Citi Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Cole Irvin - Orioles
  • Sean Manaea - Mets

Betting Odds

Baltimore Orioles vs New York Mets Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Baltimore Orioles vs New York Mets Betting Preview

The New York Mets will host the Baltimore Orioles on August 21, 2024, in what promises to be an exciting Interleague matchup. Both teams are in the midst of competitive seasons, with the Mets at 65-61 and the Orioles boasting a strong 74-53 record. The Orioles, currently contending for a playoff spot, have been on a roll and are looking to build on a recent series of strong performances.

In their last game, the Mets fell short but managed to make a push against a solid opponent. Meanwhile, the Orioles’ offense has been electric, currently ranked 3rd in MLB, driven by their league-leading 157 home runs. With the powerful Orioles offense going up against Sean Manaea, a left-handed pitcher who has shown some vulnerability in allowing a high number of hits, it could spell trouble for the Mets.

Sean Manaea has had a decent season, carrying a 9-5 record and a solid ERA of 3.46. However, the projections suggest that he might be due for regression, especially against a lineup that can capitalize on high flyball rates, like the Orioles. Conversely, Cole Irvin, also a lefty, has struggled, with an ERA of 4.85 and a poor performance ranking him among the worst starters in MLB.

The projections favor the Mets to score around 4.60 runs today, thanks to their potent offense, which ranks 8th in MLB and is particularly lethal in hitting home runs (4th overall). With Manaea facing a less patient Orioles lineup, and with the Mets' best hitter, Pete Alonso, fresh off a strong week, this matchup could tilt in New York's favor, despite the close odds. The Game Total is set at an average of 8.5 runs, reflecting the anticipated offensive action from both sides.

Quick Takes Baltimore Orioles:

Cole Irvin's curveball percentage has spiked by 10.7% from last year to this one (15.2% to 25.9%) .

• Because curveballs are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.

Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected HR per 600 plate appearances (24.9) suggests that Gunnar Henderson has had positive variance on his side this year with his 35.2 actual HR/600.

• xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.

Anthony Santander pulls a lot of his flyballs (40.5% — 98th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards MLB's 4th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes New York Mets:

Sean Manaea's fastball velocity has dropped 1 mph this year (91.8 mph) below where it was last year (92.8 mph).

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.

Mark Vientos has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this season (60% of the time), but he is projected to bat 2nd on the lineup card today.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

The New York Mets have been the 5th-luckiest offense in Major League Baseball this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to hit worse in the future

• When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Game Trends

• The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 20 of their last 29 games at home (+9.90 Units / 27% ROI)
• The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Run Line in 63 of their last 116 games (+18.10 Units / 13% ROI)
• Mark Vientos has hit the RBIs Over in 7 of his last 10 games at home (+9.30 Units / 93% ROI)

Baltimore Orioles vs New York Mets Prediction

Final Score: Baltimore Orioles 4.39 vs New York Mets 4.54

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.