Baltimore Orioles vs New York Mets Betting Pick & Preview – 8/20/2024

• Date: August 20, 2024
• Venue: Citi Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Dean Kremer - Orioles
  • Jose Quintana - Mets

Betting Odds

Baltimore Orioles vs New York Mets Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Baltimore Orioles vs New York Mets Betting Preview

As the Baltimore Orioles visit Citi Field to take on the New York Mets on August 20, 2024, both teams are looking to build on their recent performances. In a tight contest yesterday, the Mets edged out the Orioles with a walk-off 4-3 victory, showcasing their offensive prowess against a solid Orioles pitching staff.

Currently, the Orioles sit at 73-53, enjoying a great season and a 2nd place ranking in MLB offense. Their offensive strength is highlighted by Gunnar Henderson, who has posted impressive numbers with 33 home runs and a .287 batting average this season. The Orioles have also excelled in power, leading the league with 132 home runs.

On the other hand, the Mets, with a record of 65-60, are having an above-average season but are facing challenges. They rank 9th in MLB offense, with their best hitter, Francisco Lindor, contributing significantly to their success. However, the Mets’ bullpen is ranked 23rd in MLB, which could pose a problem in close games.

Pitching will be crucial in this matchup, as the Mets are projected to start lefty Jose Quintana, who has struggled at times this season, holding a 4.97 xERA. Quintana's last outing was uneventful, as he allowed 4 earned runs in just 4 innings. Conversely, the Orioles will counter with Dean Kremer, who has been less effective as well, with a 5-9 record and a 5.10 xERA.

Despite the close odds, projections suggest that the Mets may have a slight edge, with the projections indicating they could score around 4.42 runs while limiting the Orioles to 4.36. As both teams look to gain momentum, this matchup promises to be another competitive affair in what has already been an engaging series.

Quick Takes Baltimore Orioles:

Dean Kremer's fastball velocity has decreased 1.3 mph this season (92.8 mph) below where it was last year (94.1 mph).

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.

The New York Mets have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Colton Cowser has a strong chance of never losing the platoon advantage against the 'pen all game.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

Anthony Santander pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (40.5% — 98th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the game's 4th-shallowest LF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes New York Mets:

Jose Quintana projects to average 1.9 walks in this outing, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, and more.

Despite posting a .374 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Mark Vientos has experienced some positive variance given the .056 discrepancy between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .318.

• Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.

The New York Mets have been the 7th-luckiest offense in Major League Baseball this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to perform worse in future games

• When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Game Trends

• The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 41 of their last 66 games (+10.10 Units / 11% ROI)
• The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Run Line in 36 of their last 61 away games (+14.05 Units / 18% ROI)
• Jesse Winker has hit the Total Bases Over in 18 of his last 25 games at home (+9.70 Units / 27% ROI)

Baltimore Orioles vs New York Mets Prediction

Final Score: Baltimore Orioles 4.36 vs New York Mets 4.42

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