Baltimore Orioles vs Minnesota Twins Prediction, Odds & Picks – 9/29/2024

• Date: September 29, 2024
• Venue: Target Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Albert Suarez - Orioles
  • Bailey Ober - Twins

Betting Odds

Baltimore Orioles vs Minnesota Twins Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Baltimore Orioles vs Minnesota Twins Betting Preview

The Minnesota Twins and Baltimore Orioles are set to clash at Target Field on September 29, 2024, for the third game in their series. The Twins, sitting at 82-79, have had an average season, while the Orioles, boasting a 90-71 record, are enjoying a good year.

In their previous encounter on September 28, the Orioles handed the Twins a 9-2 defeat, showcasing their offensive prowess. Gunnar Henderson, a key figure in Baltimore's lineup, has been leading the charge with impressive numbers across the board, including 37 home runs this season. Meanwhile, the Twins will look to rebound with Bailey Ober on the mound. Ober, ranked as the 37th-best starting pitcher in MLB, according to advanced-stat Power Rankings, has a solid 12-8 record and a 3.94 ERA, though his 3.20 xERA suggests he's been somewhat unlucky.

Ober will face off against the Orioles' Albert Suarez, who, despite a respectable 3.74 ERA, has been fortunate according to his peripherals. The projections anticipate challenges for Suarez, with a high likelihood of allowing 3.0 earned runs over 4.8 innings. This could spell trouble against a Twins offense that ranks 11th in MLB, even if their ranking is only average.

THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, gives the Twins a 57% chance of securing a victory, favoring them over the Orioles' 43% win probability. The projections foresee a potentially high-scoring affair, with Minnesota expected to score 5.25 runs on average compared to Baltimore's 4.75 runs. With the Twins' playoff hopes still flickering, they'll be aiming to capitalize on Suarez's vulnerabilities and turn the series in their favor.

Quick Takes Baltimore Orioles:

Albert Suarez has tallied 15.1 outs per outing this year, checking in at the 24th percentile.

• A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.

Cedric Mullins may have an edge against every reliever for the whole game, since the bullpen of the Minnesota Twins has just 1 same-handed RP.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

Baltimore Orioles batters as a group have been among the best in MLB this year (3rd-) in regard to their 89.7-mph average exit velocity.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Quick Takes Minnesota Twins:

Bailey Ober's higher utilization rate of his secondary pitches this year (61.9% compared to 54.3% last year) figures to work in his favor considering they are typically much more effective than fastballs.

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

In terms of his home runs, Willi Castro has experienced some negative variance this year. His 11.4 HR per 600 plate appearances rate has been a fair amount lower than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 19.2.

• xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.

Edouard Julien has a 98th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (40.5%) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of baseball's 11th-deepest LF fences today.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Over in 29 of their last 45 games at home (+14.90 Units / 30% ROI)
• The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Team Total Under in 53 of their last 87 games (+16.10 Units / 16% ROI)
• Bailey Ober has hit the Strikeouts Over in 13 of his last 17 games (+9.70 Units / 49% ROI)

Baltimore Orioles vs Minnesota Twins Prediction

Final Score: Baltimore Orioles 5.13 vs Minnesota Twins 4.6

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