Baltimore Orioles vs Minnesota Twins Pick – 5/7/2025

As the Minnesota Twins prepare to face the Baltimore Orioles on May 7, 2025, both teams find themselves struggling this season. The Twins sit at 16-20, while the Orioles are slightly worse at 13-21. This matchup is particularly crucial as both teams look to turn their fortunes around, especially after the Orioles suffered a disappointing loss to the Twins in the first game of this series.

On the mound, the Twins will rely on Simeon Woods Richardson, who has shown flashes of potential with a 4.03 ERA this season, despite being ranked as the 138th best starting pitcher in MLB. His advanced statistics indicate he may have been a bit fortunate, with a higher expected ERA (5.62 xERA) suggesting he could struggle. Woods Richardson is projected to pitch an average of 5.0 innings today, allowing about 2.5 earned runs, but he faces a challenging task against a Baltimore offense that ranks 10th in home runs.

Charlie Morton, on the other hand, has had a tumultuous season, struggling with a 9.76 ERA and an 0-6 record. Despite this, projections hint at a potential improvement, indicating he may have been unlucky with his high xFIP of 5.43. Morton is also expected to pitch around 5.2 innings, allowing 2.7 earned runs, but his high walk rate could be problematic against the Twins' low-walk offense.

With the Twins' bullpen being ranked 8th overall, they might be able to hold down the fort if Woods Richardson can hand them a lead. Given these dynamics and the Twins' status as -150 favorites with an implied team total of 5.14 runs, they have a solid opportunity to bounce back and claim victory in this pivotal matchup.

Quick Takes Baltimore Orioles:

Charlie Morton's higher utilization rate of his fastball this season (44.3 compared to 38.8% last year) is not ideal since they are generally much less effective than breaking or off-speed pitches.

• Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.

Typically, hitters like Cedric Mullins who hit a lot of groundballs tend to be less successful when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of groundballs such as Simeon Woods Richardson.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Coby Mayo hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.5% — 79th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards the game's 10th-deepest CF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Minnesota Twins:

The Minnesota Twins infield defense grades out as the 3rd-weakest out of every team in action today.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.

Brooks Lee is projected to bat 5th on the lineup card in today's game, which would be an upgrade from his 89% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this year.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

Ranking 7th-lowest in the game this year, Minnesota Twins hitters collectively have posted a 11.7° launch angle (a reliable stat to measure the ability to lift the ball for power).

• A low launch angle generally means the hitter struggles to lift the ball into the air, which is a key component for power and home runs.

Game Trends

• The Minnesota Twins have hit the Run Line in 7 of their last 9 games at home (+6.05 Units / 59% ROI)
• The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Team Total Under in 10 of their last 11 away games (+9.25 Units / 77% ROI)
• Heston Kjerstad has hit the Hits Under in 7 of his last 9 away games (+7.10 Units / 79% ROI)

Baltimore Orioles vs Minnesota Twins Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Baltimore Orioles 4.63, Minnesota Twins 4.5

• Date: May 7, 2025
• Venue: Target Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Charlie Morton - Orioles
  • Simeon Woods Richardson - Twins

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