Baltimore Orioles vs Milwaukee Brewers Prediction – 5/21/2025

On May 21, 2025, the Milwaukee Brewers will host the Baltimore Orioles at American Family Field for the third game of this interleague series. The Brewers enter this matchup with a record of 24-25, while the Orioles are struggling at 15-32. The Brewers are currently averaging slightly better than the Orioles, both in team performance and player statistics, yet their ranked offensive output places them as the 25th best in MLB, highlighting challenges in generating runs.

Both Chad Patrick and Tomoyuki Sugano are set to take the mound. Patrick has had a rocky season with a 2-4 record and a solid ERA of 3.35, but his 4.61 xFIP suggests he's been somewhat fortunate. The projections indicate he will average 5.1 innings today, allowing about 2.8 earned runs, but significant concerns remain regarding his propensity to give up 5.2 hits and 1.3 walks per outing. Conversely, Sugano, despite holding a slightly better record at 4-3 and an impressive ERA of 3.08, also faces scrutiny with a similar level of expected performance due to his own high xFIP of 4.43.

Despite the Brewers' 25th ranking in home runs this season, their ability to run the bases is notably strong, as they lead MLB in stolen bases. This speed could be a critical factor against Sugano, who may find it difficult to manage base runners effectively. The Brewers are also coming off a recent game where their best hitter displayed impressive form, leading to a strong overall offensive output.

Betting markets reflect a tight contest, with Milwaukee favored at -130. The game total is set at an average 8.5 runs, which could hint at an intriguing battle of wills on the field, as both teams seek to turn their season's fortunes around.

Quick Takes Baltimore Orioles:

In his previous start, Tomoyuki Sugano struggled when it came to striking batters out and only managed to tally 1 Ks.

• A pitcher who struggled in his last outing may have something wrong that affects him in his next outing as well.

Gunnar Henderson has seen a substantial improvement in his exit velocity this year; just compare his 95.4-mph average to last season's 92.7-mph mark.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Ryan Mountcastle has a 93rd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37%) and will be challenged by baseball's 7th-deepest RF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Milwaukee Brewers:

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) forecasts that Chad Patrick will give up an average of 1.3 singles in today's game.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, and more.

Extreme flyball batters like Christian Yelich generally hit worse against extreme flyball pitchers like Tomoyuki Sugano.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Via the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the team with the 4th-least strikeout-prone lineup on the slate today is the Milwaukee Brewers with a 20.2% underlying K%.

• THE BAT X analyzes each player in today's specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Game Trends

• The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Under in 29 of their last 49 games (+10.40 Units / 19% ROI)
• The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Team Total Under in 28 of their last 40 games (+15.05 Units / 33% ROI)
• William Contreras has hit the Hits Under in 9 of his last 15 games (+8.85 Units / 54% ROI)

Baltimore Orioles vs Milwaukee Brewers Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Baltimore Orioles 4.98, Milwaukee Brewers 4.38

• Date: May 21, 2025
• Venue: American Family Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Tomoyuki Sugano - Orioles
  • Chad Patrick - Brewers

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