Baltimore Orioles vs Milwaukee Brewers Prediction – 5/19/2025

On May 19, 2025, the Milwaukee Brewers will host the Baltimore Orioles at American Family Field in what marks the first game of their interleague series. Both teams have struggled this season, with the Brewers sitting at 22-25 and the Orioles at a disappointing 15-30. The matchup is crucial for both squads as they look to improve their standings, though neither is currently contending for a playoff spot.

Quinn Priester is projected to take the mound for the Brewers. While he has an average ERA of 4.59, his peripheral stats suggest he may have been lucky this season. With a 1-2 record across six starts, Priester's high walk rate of 14.2% could be a concern against the Orioles, who have the 4th least walks in MLB. This matchup might favor Priester, as the Orioles’ offense struggles against pitchers with control issues.

Dean Kremer, on the other hand, is anticipated to start for Baltimore. His ERA stands at 5.36, which is below average, and he has been categorized as one of the worst pitchers in the league. Although his 4.63 xFIP indicates he may improve, Kremer faces a daunting task against a Brewers offense that, despite ranking 26th overall, boasts exceptional speed on the bases.

Betting markets suggest a competitive game, with the Brewers holding a slightly better moneyline at -115 and an implied team total of 4.30 runs. However, their struggles against flyball pitchers like Kremer, who has allowed 38% flyballs this season, could hinder their offensive output. The total for the game is set at an average 8.5 runs, reflecting the uncertainty surrounding both teams' abilities to capitalize on scoring opportunities.

Quick Takes Baltimore Orioles:

Dean Kremer's curveball utilization has spiked by 5.7% from last year to this one (11.4% to 17.1%) .

• Because curveballs are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.

The Baltimore Orioles have been the 3rd-unluckiest offense in baseball this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to hit better in the future

• When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Quick Takes Milwaukee Brewers:

The Milwaukee Brewers outfield defense profiles as the 3rd-strongest among all the teams on the slate today.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.

Milwaukee Brewers bats jointly rank 30th- in baseball for power this year when assessing with their 6.3% Barrel%.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Game Trends

• The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Under in 23 of their last 37 games (+11.00 Units / 27% ROI)
• The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Team Total Under in 17 of their last 22 games (+11.70 Units / 44% ROI)
• Quinn Priester has hit the Earned Runs Under in 5 of his last 7 games (+3.05 Units / 35% ROI)

Baltimore Orioles vs Milwaukee Brewers Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Baltimore Orioles 4.66, Milwaukee Brewers 4.62

• Date: May 19, 2025
• Venue: American Family Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Dean Kremer - Orioles
  • Quinn Priester - Brewers

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