Baltimore Orioles vs Los Angeles Dodgers Preview & Odds – 8/29/2024

• Date: August 29, 2024
• Venue: Dodger Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Cade Povich - Orioles
  • Bobby Miller - Dodgers

Betting Odds

Baltimore Orioles vs Los Angeles Dodgers Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Baltimore Orioles vs Los Angeles Dodgers Betting Preview

On August 29, 2024, the Los Angeles Dodgers will host the Baltimore Orioles at Dodger Stadium in what promises to be an exciting Interleague matchup. In their most recent game, the Dodgers edged out the Orioles 6-4, showcasing their strong offensive capabilities and securing their second consecutive victory. Currently, the Dodgers sit at 79 wins and 54 losses, while the Orioles are just behind with a 77-57 record, making this a critical game for both teams as they aim to solidify their playoff positions.

The Dodgers are projected to start Bobby Miller, who has had a tumultuous season with a 1-3 record and a troubling 7.49 ERA. However, he possesses a 4.42 xFIP, indicating that he may have been unlucky and could perform better in this outing. Miller's last start was relatively uneventful, with 3 earned runs over 6 innings. Facing him will be Cade Povich, who has struggled even more this season, sporting a 1-6 record and a 6.10 ERA. Povich's last appearance saw him getting hit hard for 5 earned runs over 5 innings.

The Dodgers' offense ranks as the 3rd best in MLB, demonstrating their power with 139 home runs this season. In contrast, the Orioles have also been impressive at the plate, ranking 5th overall. However, the projections suggest that the Dodgers will likely capitalize on Povich’s high-flyball tendencies, potentially turning those flyballs into home runs. Additionally, the Dodgers’ patient lineup could exploit Povich’s control issues, especially since he is a high-walk pitcher.

With a high Game Total set at 9.5 runs and the Dodgers favored with a moneyline of -160, the projections indicate a strong likelihood for the Dodgers to outperform their implied team total of 5.25 runs, making them a solid pick for bettors looking to capitalize on their current form.

Quick Takes Baltimore Orioles:

Cade Povich has tallied 14.6 outs per start this year, ranking in the 12th percentile.

• A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.

Colton Cowser has been cold in recent games, with his seasonal exit velocity of 90.7-mph dropping to 79.9-mph in the past week's worth of games.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

The Baltimore Orioles bullpen projects as the 10th-worst in Major League Baseball, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Dodgers:

Bobby Miller has relied on his slider 5.8% less often this season (11.6%) than he did last season (17.4%).

• Because sliders are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use them less often may see less success as a result, particularly if he uses his fastball more instead.

Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected HR per 600 plate appearances (8.3) suggests that Kike Hernandez has had positive variance on his side this year with his 16.4 actual HR/600.

• xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.

Max Muncy pulls a lot of his flyballs (38.6% — 97th percentile) and will have to hit them out towards MLB's 8th-deepest RF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Game Total Over in 40 of their last 71 games (+8.15 Units / 10% ROI)
• The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Run Line in 69 of their last 126 games (+19.65 Units / 13% ROI)
• Anthony Santander has hit the Home Runs Over in 13 of his last 38 games (+23.65 Units / 62% ROI)

Baltimore Orioles vs Los Angeles Dodgers Prediction

Final Score: Baltimore Orioles 4.86 vs Los Angeles Dodgers 5.77

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.