Baltimore Orioles vs Los Angeles Dodgers Prediction & Picks 8/28/2024

• Date: August 28, 2024
• Venue: Dodger Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Corbin Burnes - Orioles
  • Walker Buehler - Dodgers

Betting Odds

Baltimore Orioles vs Los Angeles Dodgers Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Baltimore Orioles vs Los Angeles Dodgers Betting Preview

On August 28, 2024, the Los Angeles Dodgers will host the Baltimore Orioles in what promises to be an exciting matchup at Dodger Stadium. Both teams are enjoying strong seasons, with the Dodgers holding a record of 78-54 and the Orioles at 77-56. This game marks the second in a series between these two competitive clubs, and it comes on the heels of a win from the Orioles on Tuesday night.

Walker Buehler, projected to start for Los Angeles, has struggled this season with a 1-4 record and a troubling ERA of 6.09. Despite his low ranking as the 171st best starting pitcher in MLB, advanced metrics suggest he may be due for better results, as his xFIP sits at 4.72, indicating some bad luck. Buehler is expected to pitch around 5.1 innings, allowing approximately 2.9 earned runs, which is less than ideal against a top-tier offense.

On the other side, Corbin Burnes is slated to take the mound for Baltimore. With a strong 12-6 record and a solid 3.28 ERA, Burnes ranks as the 27th best starting pitcher in MLB, showcasing his reliability. However, he may face challenges against the powerful Dodgers lineup, which ranks 3rd in MLB in home runs this season. The projections indicate that while the Dodgers may score around 5.11 runs, the Orioles are also expected to put up a respectable 5.02 runs.

With both teams possessing potent offenses—Los Angeles ranked 3rd and Baltimore at 5th—the game total is set at an average of 8.5 runs. Betting markets have this matchup as a toss-up, with both teams' moneylines set at -110. However, the projections lean slightly in favor of the Dodgers, suggesting they could edge out a victory in a close contest.

Quick Takes Baltimore Orioles:

Corbin Burnes's cut-fastball rate has decreased by 11.9% from last year to this one (55.4% to 43.5%) .

• Because cutters are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use them less often may see less success as a result, particularly if he uses his fastball more instead.

Gunnar Henderson has had some very good luck with his home runs this year; his 33.7 HR per 600 plate appearances mark is a good deal higher than his 23.8 Expected HR/600, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

• xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.

In today's game, Anthony Santander is at a disadvantage facing the league's 8th-deepest RF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 40.2% rate (98th percentile).

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Dodgers:

Walker Buehler's 94.7-mph fastball velocity this year is in the 82nd percentile among all SPs.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Max Muncy is projected to bat 7th in the lineup in this game, which would be a downgrade from his 69% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this season.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

The best projected lineup on the slate today in terms of overall batting ability is that of the Los Angeles Dodgers.

• A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Game Trends

• The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Game Total Over in 35 of their last 63 games at home (+6.75 Units / 10% ROI)
• The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Run Line in 49 of their last 85 games (+17.80 Units / 18% ROI)
• Teoscar Hernandez has hit the Home Runs Over in 6 of his last 18 games at home (+15.30 Units / 85% ROI)

Baltimore Orioles vs Los Angeles Dodgers Prediction

Final Score: Baltimore Orioles 5.04 vs Los Angeles Dodgers 5.15

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