Baltimore Orioles vs Los Angeles Dodgers Odds & Picks – 8/27/2024

• Date: August 27, 2024
• Venue: Dodger Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Cole Irvin - Orioles
  • Jack Flaherty - Dodgers

Betting Odds

Baltimore Orioles vs Los Angeles Dodgers Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Baltimore Orioles vs Los Angeles Dodgers Betting Preview

On August 27, 2024, the Los Angeles Dodgers will host the Baltimore Orioles in what promises to be an intriguing Interleague matchup at Dodger Stadium. Both teams are enjoying successful seasons, with the Dodgers currently holding a record of 78-53, while the Orioles sit at 76-56. The Dodgers have been particularly strong at home, and with their potent offense ranked 3rd in MLB, they pose a significant challenge for any pitching staff they face.

The Dodgers will send Jack Flaherty to the mound, who has been effective this season with a 10-5 record and an impressive 3.00 ERA. Flaherty's ability to limit walks (4.7 BB%) could play a crucial role against the Orioles, who have the 6th least walks in MLB. Meanwhile, the projections indicate that Flaherty is likely to allow around 2.7 earned runs today, while his strikeout potential remains solid at 6.3 batters per game.

Cole Irvin will be taking the hill for the Orioles, but his season has been less impressive, as he carries a 4.82 ERA and a concerning 5.74 xERA, suggesting that he may have been fortunate so far. The projections show he could struggle against the Dodgers' patient lineup, allowing an average of 3.7 earned runs and 6.5 hits.

The Dodgers are currently favored in the betting market, with a strong moneyline of -190, reflecting an implied win probability of 63%. This aligns with projections from the leading MLB projection system, which favors the Dodgers with a projected win probability of 66%. With the Dodgers' offensive prowess and Flaherty's strong performance, they are positioned well to take the first game of this series against the Orioles.

Quick Takes Baltimore Orioles:

Over his last 3 outings, Cole Irvin has seen a significant drop off in his fastball velocity: from 91.3 mph over the entire season to 90 mph recently.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his velocity will likely see improved results.

Jackson Holliday's average exit velocity has declined recently; his 89-mph seasonal mark has lowered to 80.7-mph over the last week.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

In today's game, Anthony Santander is at a disadvantage facing the league's 8th-deepest RF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 40.4% rate (98th percentile).

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Dodgers:

Compared to league average, Jack Flaherty has been granted more leash than the typical pitcher this year, recording an extra 6.4 adjusted pitches each start.

• Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Kike Hernandez has had some very good luck with his home runs this year; his 16.6 HR per 600 plate appearances figure is considerably higher than his 7.8 Expected HR/600, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

• xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.

The Los Angeles Dodgers projected batting order ranks as the 2nd-strongest of all teams on the slate in terms of overall hitting skill.

• A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Game Trends

• The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Game Total Over in 27 of their last 47 games (+7.55 Units / 15% ROI)
• The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Run Line in 47 of their last 83 games (+15.80 Units / 16% ROI)
• Anthony Santander has hit the Singles Under in 18 of his last 22 games (+12.15 Units / 37% ROI)

Baltimore Orioles vs Los Angeles Dodgers Prediction

Final Score: Baltimore Orioles 4.76 vs Los Angeles Dodgers 6.21

Visit the MLB picks and predictions section for the rest of today's games.