Baltimore Orioles vs Los Angeles Angels Pick – 5/11/2025

On May 11, 2025, the Los Angeles Angels will host the Baltimore Orioles at Angel Stadium for the third game of their series. The Angels sit at 16-22 this season, while the Orioles are struggling even more with a 14-24 record. Both teams are having dismal campaigns, but the Angels are projected to start Tyler Anderson, who has a solid 2.68 ERA but is ranked 184th among MLB starting pitchers according to advanced Power Rankings. This ranking indicates that he is among the weaker options in baseball. Conversely, Zach Eflin of the Orioles holds a much better position at 50th, boasting a 3.00 ERA.

In the previous game, the Angels managed to squeak out a close victory, which could provide them with a much-needed boost. Despite this, their offense ranks 26th in the league and is tied for 29th in batting average. While they are strong in the power department, ranked 5th in home runs, they struggle with consistency.

Zach Eflin’s low strikeout rate (11.8% K%) could be a concern against a high-strikeout Angels lineup, which ranks 4th in MLB for strikeouts. However, Eflin's strength lies in keeping walks down, and with the Angels having the lowest walk rate in the league, he may find some success in attacking the zone.

The projections suggest that the Angels will manage about 4.19 runs, while the Orioles are anticipated to score around 4.81 runs. This game has a high total of 9.0 runs, indicating an expectation of offensive fireworks, but the Angels will need a strong performance from Anderson to keep them in contention.

Quick Takes Baltimore Orioles:

Zach Eflin wasn't on when it came to striking hitters out in his last game started and put up 2 Ks.

• A pitcher who struggled in his last outing may have something wrong that affects him in his next outing as well.

Cedric Mullins is an extreme flyball batter and squares off against the strong outfield defense of Los Angeles (#1-best of all teams on the slate today).

• This player's skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team's defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Baltimore Orioles' bullpen projects as the 8th-best among all major league teams.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Angels:

Tyler Anderson is an extreme flyball pitcher (40.2% FB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) and has the misfortune of pitching in the #9 HR venue among all major league parks in this game.

• This pitcher's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Nolan Schanuel is penciled in 2nd in the batting order in this matchup, which would be an upgrade from his 54% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this season.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jorge Soler in the 93rd percentile as it relates to his overall offensive skill.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.

Game Trends

• The Los Angeles Angels have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 10 of their last 16 games at home (+3.60 Units / 19% ROI)
• The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Team Total Under in 17 of their last 20 away games (+14.00 Units / 61% ROI)
• Zach Neto has hit the Hits Over in 14 of his last 15 games (+11.85 Units / 43% ROI)

Baltimore Orioles vs Los Angeles Angels Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Baltimore Orioles 5.36, Los Angeles Angels 4.61

• Date: May 11, 2025
• Venue: Angel Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Zach Eflin - Orioles
  • Tyler Anderson - Angels

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