Baltimore Orioles vs Los Angeles Angels Pick – 5/10/2025

As the Los Angeles Angels host the Baltimore Orioles on May 10, 2025, both teams find themselves struggling through a challenging season. The Angels sit at 15-22, while the Orioles have a slightly worse record of 14-23. Despite their woes, the Angels are projected to start Jack Kochanowicz, who has had a rough season with a 1-5 record and an ERA of 5.79. However, his 5.25 xFIP suggests he could be due for better luck moving forward.

The game marks the second in the series, and yesterday, the Angels fell to the Orioles, which may put the pressure on the home team here. Kochanowicz faces Kyle Gibson, who has also struggled with a 0-1 record and a staggering ERA of 14.09. While both pitchers are having tough seasons, projections indicate Gibson might perform better than his current numbers suggest as well.

Offensively, the Angels rank 26th in MLB overall and 28th in batting average, although they do boast the 5th most home runs. Conversely, the Orioles rank 22nd in offense and 26th in batting average, yet they have also hit well with the 10th most home runs. This matchup between two struggling offenses could be pivotal, with home runs likely playing a crucial role.

The Angels’ bullpen, ranked 13th, is slightly better than the Orioles’, which ranks 8th. Betting odds currently favor the Orioles with a moneyline of -145, but given the Angels' powerful lineup and the potential for Kochanowicz's improvement, this game could swing in favor of the Los Angeles team. The total for the game is set at a high 9.5 runs, indicating expectations for runs, especially with the Angels’ potent power-hitting capabilities.

Quick Takes Baltimore Orioles:

Kyle Gibson is an extreme groundball pitcher (44.8% GB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT), which should make him somewhat immune to the dangers of pitching in Angel Stadium — the #8 HR venue in the league — in this game.

• This pitcher's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-expected performance.

Adley Rutschman has been cold recently, with his seasonal exit velocity of 88.8-mph dropping to 76.9-mph over the last week.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

The Baltimore Orioles bullpen profiles as the 7th-best in Major League Baseball, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Angels:

Contrary to popular belief, fastballs are generally a pitcher's least effective pitch. Jack Kochanowicz has relied on his non-fastballs 7.6% more often this season (29.1%) than he did last year (21.5%).

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

Extreme groundball hitters like Taylor Ward generally hit better against extreme flyball pitchers like Kyle Gibson.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Taylor Ward in the 92nd percentile when assessing his overall offensive talent.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.

Game Trends

• The Los Angeles Angels have hit the Team Total Under in 17 of their last 26 games (+6.80 Units / 22% ROI)
• The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Team Total Under in 13 of their last 15 away games (+11.25 Units / 67% ROI)
• Taylor Ward has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 4 games (+7.80 Units / 195% ROI)

Baltimore Orioles vs Los Angeles Angels Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Baltimore Orioles 5.55, Los Angeles Angels 4.58

• Date: May 10, 2025
• Venue: Angel Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Kyle Gibson - Orioles
  • Jack Kochanowicz - Angels

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