Baltimore Orioles vs Kansas City Royals Prediction, Preview, and Odds – 4/19/2024

Baltimore Orioles vs Kansas City Royals Overview

• Date: April 19, 2024
• Venue: Kauffman Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Dean Kremer - Orioles
  • Alec Marsh - Royals
• Run Line: Orioles -1.5 115, Royals 1.5 -135
• Money Line: Orioles -140, Royals 120
• Total (Over/Under):9 -120

Baltimore Orioles vs Kansas City Royals Win Probabilities

Implied Win %:

• Baltimore Orioles - 56%
• Kansas City Royals - 44%

Projected Win %:

• Baltimore Orioles - 57.42%
• Kansas City Royals - 42.58%

Baltimore Orioles vs Kansas City Royals Game Preview & Prediction

In an American League matchup, the Kansas City Royals are set to host the Baltimore Orioles at Kauffman Stadium on April 19, 2024. Both teams have been having great seasons so far, with the Royals holding a 12-7 record and the Orioles boasting a 12-6 record. This game marks the first in a series between the two teams.

The Royals are projected to start right-handed pitcher Alec Marsh, who has been solid this season. Marsh has started three games, with a 2-0 win/loss record and an ERA of 4.32. Despite his average ERA, his 3.37 FIP suggests that he has been unlucky and is likely to perform better going forward. However, according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, Marsh is ranked as the #294 best starting pitcher in MLB out of approximately 350 pitchers, indicating that he is one of the worst in the league.

On the other side, the Orioles will send right-handed pitcher Dean Kremer to the mound. Kremer has also started three games this season, with a 0-1 win/loss record and an ERA of 4.96. However, his 4.14 xFIP suggests that he has been unlucky as well and is likely to improve in future outings. While Kremer is considered one of the worst pitchers in MLB according to our Power Rankings, his performance may be boosted by facing a Royals offense that ranks #26 in team home runs this season.

Speaking of offenses, the Royals rank as the #12 best offense in MLB this season, showcasing their underlying talent. However, their team batting average ranks #19, while their team home runs rank #26. On the other hand, the Orioles boast the #5 best offense in MLB, with a solid team batting average ranking of #14. Both teams have average rankings in team stolen bases.

When it comes to the bullpens, the Orioles have the #12 best bullpen in MLB according to our Power Rankings, while the Royals rank #23. This could give the Orioles an advantage in the later innings of the game.

Based on the current odds, the Orioles are the betting favorites with a moneyline of -140 and an implied win probability of 56%. The Royals, as underdogs, have a moneyline of +120 and an implied win probability of 44%. The Game Total for this matchup is set at 9.0 runs, indicating a potentially high-scoring game.

Overall, this game presents an interesting matchup between two teams having great seasons. The Royals will rely on Alec Marsh to overcome his lower ranking in the Power Rankings, while the Orioles will count on Dean Kremer to build on his potential. With the Orioles' strong offense and better bullpen ranking, they enter this game as the favorites. However, anything can happen in baseball, and the Royals will look to capitalize on their home-field advantage and prove the odds wrong.

Quick Takes Baltimore Orioles:

The Baltimore Orioles outfield defense profiles as the 7th-worst among all the teams in action today.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.

Anthony Santander's quickness has decreased this season. His 26.64 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last year sits at 24.76 ft/sec now.

• Slow players tend to get fewer hits because they can't beat out groundballs, fewer extra base hits, and fewer stolen bases.

In today's matchup, Anthony Santander is at a disadvantage facing the league's deepest RF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 40.4% rate (98th percentile).

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Kansas City Royals:

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Alec Marsh to throw 83 pitches in this matchup (least of all pitchers on the slate today), considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup.

• Pitchers who throw relatively few pitches are more likely to get pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.

Vinnie Pasquantino has suffered from bad luck when it comes to his batting average since the start of last season; his .250 figure is deflated compared to his .297 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

• xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.

Projected catcher Salvador Perez grades out as a horrible pitch framer, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Pitch framing is a catcher's ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, "stealing" strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Game Trends

• The Kansas City Royals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 31 of their last 60 games at home (+12.37 Units / 19% ROI)
• The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Moneyline in 85 of their last 141 games (+25.80 Units / 14% ROI)
• Maikel Garcia has hit the Singles Under in 15 of his last 19 games (+14.20 Units / 75% ROI)

Orioles vs Royals Prediction: Orioles 5.61 - Royals 4.54

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