Baltimore Orioles vs Kansas City Royals Prediction – 4/4/2025

Baltimore Orioles vs Kansas City Royals Betting Preview

The Kansas City Royals will host the Baltimore Orioles on April 4, 2025, in a matchup that features two teams struggling early in the season. The Royals sit at 2-4, while the Orioles are slightly better at 3-4. Both teams are looking to turn their seasons around, but neither has shown much consistency thus far.

In their last outing, the Royals faced a tough loss, which highlighted their ongoing issues on both offense and defense. The Royals have consistently struggled to generate runs. Their starting pitcher, Seth Lugo, has been average at best, holding a 5.40 ERA and a 6.37 xERA that suggests he might be due for a downturn. Lugo is projected to pitch 5.8 innings and allow 2.5 earned runs, but he may be vulnerable against a powerful Orioles lineup, which ranks 11th in offensive efficiency.

On the other side, the Orioles will counter with Dean Kremer, who has an alarming ERA of 8.44. Despite his struggles, Kremer's projections indicate a potential for improvement, as his 3.93 xFIP suggests he may have been unlucky thus far. He is expected to pitch 5.5 innings and allow 2.5 earned runs, but with a below-average strikeout rate, he may find it challenging against a Royals lineup eager to find its footing.

Betting markets are indicating a close contest, as both teams have a moneyline set at -110, suggesting equal chances of victory. However, with the Orioles' superior offensive ranking and the projections favoring them slightly, they could have the edge needed to capitalize on the Royals' ongoing struggles.

Quick Takes Baltimore Orioles:

Typically, bats like Jackson Holliday who hit a lot of flyballs tend to perform worse when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of flyballs such as Seth Lugo.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

The Baltimore Orioles bullpen profiles as the 6th-best in the league, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes Kansas City Royals:

Compared to the average starter, Seth Lugo has been given a longer leash than the typical pitcher since the start of last season, throwing an extra 6.1 adjusted pitches each game.

• Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Hunter Renfroe pulls many of his flyballs (40.1% — 98th percentile) but may find it hard to clear baseball's 4th-deepest LF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Kansas City Royals have hit the Game Total Under in 27 of their last 39 games (+14.80 Units / 34% ROI)
• The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Run Line in 39 of their last 61 away games (+16.85 Units / 21% ROI)
• Seth Lugo has hit the Strikeouts Under in 8 of his last 9 games at home (+6.85 Units / 58% ROI)

• Date: April 4, 2025
• Venue: Kauffman Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Dean Kremer - Orioles
  • Seth Lugo - Royals

Get daily MLB picks here.