Baltimore Orioles vs Kansas City Royals Pick – 4/5/2025

Baltimore Orioles vs Kansas City Royals Betting Preview

As the Kansas City Royals prepare to face the Baltimore Orioles on April 5, 2025, both teams find themselves struggling early in the season. The Royals enter this matchup with a 3-4 record, while the Orioles are slightly worse at 3-5. Both teams have been underwhelming, with the Orioles coming off a disappointing performance in their last game, marking their second consecutive loss in the series.

On the mound for the Royals, Michael Wacha is projected to start. Despite a rough start to the year with a 0-1 record, Wacha has displayed some promise with an excellent ERA of 2.25. However, advanced metrics suggest he may have been lucky, as his 7.28 xFIP indicates a potential decline in performance moving forward. Wacha’s ability to limit earned runs will be crucial, especially against an Orioles offense that ranks 11th in MLB and boasts a solid batting average of .270.

Tomoyuki Sugano takes the ball for Baltimore, also with a 0-1 record this season. Sugano’s ERA sits at a more average 4.50, but his SIERA of 5.60 suggests he might not be in for positive regression, as luck has not been on his side. Both pitchers are right-handed, which may level the playing field for hitters from both sides.

With the Game Total set at 8.0 runs, betting markets see this as a close contest, reflected in the Royals’ -120 moneyline and the Orioles’ +100.

Quick Takes Baltimore Orioles:

As it relates to his strikeout talent, the leading projection system (THE BAT) forecasts Tomoyoki Sugano in the 3rd percentile among all SPs in MLB.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.

Tyler O'Neill is projected to hit 6th on the lineup card in today's game, which would be a downgrade from his 86% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this season.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

The Baltimore Orioles bullpen projects as the 10th-best in Major League Baseball, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes Kansas City Royals:

Out of all starters, Michael Wacha's fastball spin rate of 2132.9 rpm grades out in the 21st percentile since the start of last season.

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Salvador Perez's footspeed has fallen off this year. His 24.55 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last year sits at 21.91 ft/sec now.

• Slow players tend to get fewer hits because they can't beat out groundballs, fewer extra base hits, and fewer stolen bases.

In today's game, Hunter Renfroe is at a disadvantage facing the league's 4th-deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 40.1% rate (98th percentile).

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Kansas City Royals have hit the Game Total Under in 24 of their last 32 games (+16.25 Units / 46% ROI)
• The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Run Line in 39 of their last 61 away games (+16.85 Units / 21% ROI)
• Gunnar Henderson has hit the Singles Under in 8 of his last 10 away games (+6.30 Units / 58% ROI)

• Date: April 5, 2025
• Venue: Kauffman Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Tomoyuki Sugano - Orioles
  • Michael Wacha - Royals

Stay informed with the most recent MLB news and our analytics-driven MLB picks and predictions all season long.