Baltimore Orioles vs Houston Astros Prediction, Odds & Picks – 6/21/2024

Baltimore Orioles vs Houston Astros Details

• Date: June 21, 2024
• Venue: Minute Maid Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Grayson Rodriguez - Orioles
  • Justin Verlander - Astros

Betting Odds

Baltimore Orioles vs Houston Astros Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Baltimore Orioles vs Houston Astros Betting Preview

The Houston Astros host the Baltimore Orioles on June 21, 2024, at Minute Maid Park in what promises to be an intriguing American League matchup. The Orioles are having a stellar season, leading their division with a 49-25 record, while the Astros, at 35-40, are struggling to find their footing. The Orioles are the betting favorites with a moneyline of -150, giving them an implied win probability of 58%.

The Astros will send Justin Verlander to the mound. Verlander, a seasoned right-hander, will be tasked with stifling a powerful Orioles offense that is ranked 3rd in MLB according to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system. Verlander will have his hands full, especially with Anthony Santander, who has been on fire over the last week, hitting .320 with a 1.277 OPS, including five home runs and 11 RBIs over six games.

For the Orioles, Grayson Rodriguez will take the ball. Rodriguez, also a right-hander, has been impressive this season with an 8-2 record and a 3.20 ERA, ranking as the 65th best starting pitcher in MLB. However, he faces a potent Astros lineup that ranks 1st in team batting average and 4th in team home runs this season. The Astros' offense, led by Trey Cabbage, who has been hitting .400 with a 1.000 OPS over the last week, could exploit Rodriguez's high-flyball tendencies, potentially turning flyballs into home runs.

The Astros have an average bullpen, ranked 16th, while the Orioles boast a stronger relief corps, ranked 10th. This could play a pivotal role late in the game, especially if it remains close. The game total is set at 8.5 runs, which is typical, suggesting a balanced contest.

Given the Orioles' strong season and recent form, they are rightly favored, but the Astros' powerful offense and home-field advantage could make this a competitive game. Expect fireworks from both lineups in what should be an exciting start to this series.

Quick Takes Baltimore Orioles:

Grayson Rodriguez's curveball rate has risen by 7.5% from last season to this one (8.2% to 15.7%) .

• Because curveballs are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.

The Houston Astros have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Cedric Mullins II stands a good chance of holding the advantage against every reliever all game.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

It may be best to expect worse numbers for the Baltimore Orioles offense going forward, given that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes they are the 2nd-luckiest offense in Major League Baseball this year.

• When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Quick Takes Houston Astros:

As it relates to his batting average, Mauricio Dubon has been lucky this year. His .297 rate has been quite a bit higher than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .258.

• xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.

Houston's 89.2-mph average exit velocity this year ranks among the best in MLB: #7 overall.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Game Trends

• The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 32 of their last 51 games (+12.20 Units / 22% ROI)
• The Baltimore Orioles have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 39 of their last 58 games (+17.65 Units / 25% ROI)
• Jeremy Pena has hit the Total Bases Under in 21 of his last 24 games (+16.70 Units / 44% ROI)

Baltimore Orioles vs Houston Astros Prediction

Final Score: Baltimore Orioles 5.14 vs Houston Astros 4.51

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