Baltimore Orioles vs Houston Astros Prediction – 8/16/2025
The Baltimore Orioles will face the Houston Astros at Daikin Park on Saturday night. Baltimore secured an upset win over the Astros on Friday night and had a pitcher come close to throwing a perfect game. The O’s will look for another strong pitching performance to lead them to a win in this contest. Before the game begins, continue scrolling to get my Baltimore Orioles vs Houston Astros prediction.
Our Orioles vs Astros Pick
- Pick: Over 8.5
- Confidence: 3/5
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Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Baltimore Orioles at Houston Astros
- Date & Time: Saturday, August 16, 2025, 7:10 p.m. ET
- Starting Pitchers: Cade Povich (BAL) vs Jason Alexander (HOU)
- Stadium: Daikin Park, Houston, TX
- Broadcast: SCHN, MASN2
Key Storylines
Pitching Matchup
The Orioles will go with Cade Povich on the mound. He is a young arm and is still establishing himself. Povich allows over a hit per inning but also has over a strikeout per inning for the Astros this year. The Astros are going with Jason Alexander on the bump. He has delivered some quality starts of late and managed to shut down the New York Yankees in one of his recent outings.
Key Players
- Houston: The entire Houston offense will be a key to this game. The Astros struggled mightily to get on base against Baltimore on Friday and will need to step up as a group to avoid another shutout loss.
- Baltimore: Gunnar Henderson drove in two runs for the Orioles in their win over Houston last night. He will be an important piece of the Baltimore offense again in this game.
Recent Team Streaks
- The Orioles have won three games in a row. All three have come against AL West opponents in the Mariners and Astros.
- The Astros have lost two of their last three games.
Best Player Props
| Player | Prop |
|---|---|
| José Altuve | Over 0.5 Home Runs |
| Gunnar Henderson | Over 1.5 Total Bases |
| Jason Alexander | Over 4.5 Strikeouts |
Betting Trends & H2H
- The Orioles lead the head-to-head series 1-0 over the Astros.
- The first game between these teams stayed under the total with seven total runs scored.
- Both teams have gone under the total in at least 53% of their games so far this season.
Orioles vs Astros Model Projection
Score Projection: Houston Astros 6 – Baltimore Orioles 4
Win Probability: Astros 58%, Orioles 42%
Final Thoughts
I think we are going to see the Astros offense bounce back in this matchup from Houston. There is too much talent in the Houston lineup for them to get shut down completely for the second game in a row. My best bet for this contest is the over at 8.5 runs. Houston should do plenty of scoring against Povich and the Orioles will do just enough in their at-bats to push the game over the total.
