Baltimore Orioles vs Detroit Tigers Prediction & Picks 9/14/2024

• Date: September 14, 2024
• Venue: Comerica Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Corbin Burnes - Orioles
  • Ty Madden - Tigers

Betting Odds

Baltimore Orioles vs Detroit Tigers Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Baltimore Orioles vs Detroit Tigers Betting Preview

As the Baltimore Orioles visit Comerica Park to face the Detroit Tigers on September 14, 2024, both teams have significant stakes in the series. The Orioles, with an 83-65 record, are in a solid position, ranking as one of the top offenses in MLB. Meanwhile, the Tigers sit at 76-72, experiencing a somewhat average season. In their last matchup on September 13, the Tigers pulled out a tight 1-0 victory, showcasing their resilience despite being underdogs.

On the mound, Ty Madden is projected to start for the Tigers. He boasts a commendable ERA of 2.57 this season, though advanced metrics suggest he has been somewhat lucky, as indicated by his higher xFIP of 4.98. Madden's average projection of 4.7 innings pitched and 2.8 earned runs allowed isn't inspiring, especially against a potent offense.

Opposing him, Corbin Burnes is set to take the mound for the Orioles. With a strong 3.18 ERA and a solid performance in his last start where he went 6 innings with 2 earned runs, Burnes is one of the better pitchers in the league, ranked 31st out of approximately 350. His projected 5.4 innings today and lower than average earned runs allowed make him a tough challenge for the Tigers' struggling offense, which ranks 24th in MLB.

In terms of offensive firepower, the Orioles rank 5th overall, while the Tigers are 24th, reflecting a stark contrast in offensive capabilities. The projections suggest the Tigers might score around 4.06 runs, but with an implied team total of only 3.51 runs, they face an uphill battle. Given the current odds, the Orioles are considered heavy favorites with a moneyline of -170, while the Tigers sit at +150 as significant underdogs.

Quick Takes Baltimore Orioles:

Over his previous 3 GS, Corbin Burnes has seen a sizeable fall off in his fastball velocity: from 94.8 mph over the entire season to 93.5 mph recently.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his velocity will likely see improved results.

Gunnar Henderson has had positive variance on his side thus far when it comes to his home runs this year; his 32.8 HR per 600 plate appearances rate is a fair amount higher than his 23.6 Expected HR/600, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

• xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.

The Baltimore Orioles bullpen profiles as the 5th-worst in MLB, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes Detroit Tigers:

Taking into account both his underlying tendencies and the matchup, Ty Madden is projected to throw 83 pitches in this game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) system, which is the 5th-least of all pitchers on the slate today.

• Pitchers who throw relatively few pitches are more likely to get pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.

Parker Meadows is projected to bat 1st in the lineup in this matchup, which would be an upgrade from his 56% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this season.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

Zach McKinstry hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.9% — 98th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of MLB's 2nd-deepest CF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

Baltimore Orioles vs Detroit Tigers Prediction

Final Score: Baltimore Orioles 5.14 vs Detroit Tigers 4.06

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.