Baltimore Orioles vs Detroit Tigers Pick – 4/27/2025

Baltimore Orioles vs Detroit Tigers Betting Preview

The Detroit Tigers will host the Baltimore Orioles on April 27, 2025, in the third game of their series. The Tigers enter this matchup with a strong record of 17-10, while the Orioles are struggling at 10-16. Detroit's recent play has been impressive, showcasing their potential as a competitive team in the American League. In their last game, the Tigers secured a victory, adding to their momentum.

On the mound, the Tigers are projected to start Tarik Skubal, who ranks as the 2nd best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced-stat Power Rankings. Skubal has been effective this season, with a solid ERA of 2.83 and an ability to limit earned runs, projecting to allow just 1.8 today. His low walk rate of 4.3 BB% could be key against an Orioles offense that has shown a tendency to be patient at the plate, currently ranked 4th least in walks.

Dean Kremer will take the hill for the Orioles, but he has struggled, sporting a 6.84 ERA this season. Although Kremer's 4.32 xFIP suggests he might improve, his low strikeout rate of 14.7 K% could be problematic against a Tigers lineup that ranks 5th in strikeouts. The projections indicate that Kremer will allow 2.7 earned runs today, which could further jeopardize the Orioles' chances.

Offensively, the Tigers rank 14th best in MLB, bolstered by a batting average that places them 9th. In contrast, the Orioles rank 21st overall and 24th in batting average, highlighting a significant disparity in offensive production. With the Tigers boasting a strong bullpen ranked 2nd best, they have the upper hand in both pitching and hitting, making them a solid betting favorite for this matchup.

Quick Takes Baltimore Orioles:

Dean Kremer's higher utilization percentage of his secondary pitches this year (59.6% vs. 52.9% last year) should work in his favor considering they are typically much more effective than fastballs.

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

Gunnar Henderson's average exit velocity has risen significantly from last season to this one, averaging 96.6-mph now compared to just 92.7-mph then.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

The Baltimore Orioles have 3 bats in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Gary Sanchez, Heston Kjerstad, Ramon Laureano).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Quick Takes Detroit Tigers:

Among all starters, Tarik Skubal's fastball velocity of 96.5 mph ranks in the 96th percentile this year.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Hitters such as Javier Baez with extreme groundball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Dean Kremer who skew towards the flyball end of the spectrum.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

The Detroit Tigers bullpen ranks as the 2nd-best in baseball, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Detroit Tigers have hit the Run Line in 14 of their last 21 games (+7.40 Units / 28% ROI)
• The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Team Total Under in 9 of their last 11 away games (+7.30 Units / 61% ROI)
• Ramon Laureano has hit the Total Bases Over in 17 of his last 25 away games (+7.30 Units / 22% ROI)

Baltimore Orioles vs Detroit Tigers Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Baltimore Orioles 3.23, Detroit Tigers 4.12

• Date: April 27, 2025
• Venue: Comerica Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Dean Kremer - Orioles
  • Tarik Skubal - Tigers

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