Baltimore Orioles vs Cleveland Guardians Pick – 7/24/2025
The Baltimore Orioles will take to Progressive Field to take on the Cleveland Guardians on Thursday afternoon. Cleveland enters the contest as moneyline favorites. They have taken the first three games of this series and will look to complete a four-game sweep with a win here. Before first pitch in this contest, continue reading to get my Orioles vs Guardians prediction for this Thursday matinee.
Our Orioles vs Guardians Pick
Pick: Guardians Moneyline
Confidence: ★★★★☆
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Date & Time: Thursday, July 24, 2025, 1:10 p.m. ET
Starting Pitchers: Charlie Morton (5‑8, 5.58 ERA) vs Logan Allen (6‑8, 4.06 ERA)
Stadium: Progressive Field, Cleveland, OH
Broadcast: MLB Network
Key Storylines
Pitching form: Charlie Morton has struggled for the Orioles this season He has a losing record and a 5.58 ERA. He has allowed 5+ runs in multiple recent starts. Cleveland’s Logan Allen has been steadier with a 4.06 ERA and solid home form. But both of these pitchers are vulnerable to jams by issuing walks.
Bullpen usage: Cleveland’s bullpen has been the more consistent of the two bullpens in this series so far. The Guardians have outscored the Orioles 19-10 in the last three games and their pen has been a big reason for that disparity.
Recent team streaks: The Guardians have won four straight games going into this contest. Baltimore has dropped three straight games and are in last place in the AL East at 44-57.
Best Player Props
Player
Prop
José Ramírez (CLE)
Over 0.5 home runs
Gunnar Henderson (BAL)
Over 1.5 total bases
Logan Allen (CLE)
Over 5.5 strikeouts
Betting Trends & H2H
The Guardians are 25-24 at home this season after winning three straight home games in this series.
Cleveland leads the season series 4-2 against the Orioles this year.
The Orioles have dropped to 22-32 on the road for the year after the first three games of this series.
This is the final game of a seven-game regular season series between these two teams in 2025.
Orioles vs Guardians Model Projection
Score Projection: Guardians 5 – Orioles 4
Win Probability: Guardians 55%, Orioles 45%
Final Thoughts
Cleveland is playing some of the best baseball in the major leagues right now. They have won eight of their last 10 games coming into this contest. The Guardians have a starting pitching advantage coming into this series finale against Baltimore. I expect Logan Allen to give the Guardians the upper hand over the first five innings of this game. From there, my expectation is that the Guardians bullpen continues to hold things down, as the Guardians should get the win and complete the sweep.
Jay Sanin is a sports bettor, writer and broadcaster from New York. He is an avid New York Knicks fan and is no longer ashamed to admit it. He is also an avid New York Giants fan, and is very ashamed to admit it. His top sports to handicap are the NBA, WNBA and men’s tennis for some reason. He has watched more UAlbany Great Danes basketball than anyone should consume.
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Affiliate Disclosure ATS.io features affiliate links to licensed online casinos, sportsbooks, and gambling platforms. That means if you click on them and end up signing up or making a deposit, we might earn a commission at no extra cost to you. We only work with licensed and reputable online casinos, social casinos and sportsbooks. Our content whether it’s reviews, guides, or betting tips is written with the goal of being honest, helpful, and based on real experience. While we do earn through affiliate partnerships, it doesn’t affect our recommendations. If a site isn’t safe or doesn’t meet our standards, we won’t promote it. Simple as that. We also take responsible gambling seriously. We encourage all our readers to gamble safely, set limits, and know when to take a break. Have questions? Feel free to reach out. We’re always happy to chat.
Jay Sanin is a sports bettor, writer and broadcaster from New York. He is an avid New York Knicks fan and is no longer ashamed to admit it. He is also an avid New York Giants fan, and is very ashamed to admit it. His top sports to handicap are the NBA, WNBA and men’s tennis for some reason. He has watched more UAlbany Great Danes basketball than anyone should consume.
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