Baltimore Orioles vs Cleveland Guardians Pick – 7/24/2025

The Baltimore Orioles will take to Progressive Field to take on the Cleveland Guardians on Thursday afternoon. Cleveland enters the contest as moneyline favorites. They have taken the first three games of this series and will look to complete a four-game sweep with a win here. Before first pitch in this contest, continue reading to get my Orioles vs Guardians prediction for this Thursday matinee.

Our Orioles vs Guardians Pick

• Pick: Guardians Moneyline
• Confidence: ★★★★☆
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Game Snapshot

• Matchup: Baltimore Orioles vs Cleveland Guardians
• Date & Time: Thursday, July 24, 2025, 1:10 p.m. ET
• Starting Pitchers: Charlie Morton (5‑8, 5.58 ERA) vs Logan Allen (6‑8, 4.06 ERA)
• Stadium: Progressive Field, Cleveland, OH
• Broadcast: MLB Network

Key Storylines

• Pitching form: Charlie Morton has struggled for the Orioles this season He has a losing record and a 5.58 ERA. He has allowed 5+ runs in multiple recent starts. Cleveland’s Logan Allen has been steadier with a 4.06 ERA and solid home form. But both of these pitchers are vulnerable to jams by issuing walks.
• Bullpen usage: Cleveland’s bullpen has been the more consistent of the two bullpens in this series so far. The Guardians have outscored the Orioles 19-10 in the last three games and their pen has been a big reason for that disparity.
• Recent team streaks: The Guardians have won four straight games going into this contest. Baltimore has dropped three straight games and are in last place in the AL East at 44-57.

Best Player Props

Betting Trends & H2H

• The Guardians are 25-24 at home this season after winning three straight home games in this series.
• Cleveland leads the season series 4-2 against the Orioles this year.
• The Orioles have dropped to 22-32 on the road for the year after the first three games of this series.
• This is the final game of a seven-game regular season series between these two teams in 2025.

Orioles vs Guardians Model Projection

Score Projection: Guardians 5 – Orioles 4

Win Probability: Guardians 55%, Orioles 45%

Final Thoughts

Cleveland is playing some of the best baseball in the major leagues right now. They have won eight of their last 10 games coming into this contest. The Guardians have a starting pitching advantage coming into this series finale against Baltimore. I expect Logan Allen to give the Guardians the upper hand over the first five innings of this game. From there, my expectation is that the Guardians bullpen continues to hold things down, as the Guardians should get the win and complete the sweep.

Jay Sanin

Jay Sanin is a sports bettor, writer and broadcaster from New York. He is an avid New York Knicks fan and is no longer ashamed to admit it. He is also an avid New York Giants fan, and is very ashamed to admit it. His top sports to handicap are the NBA, WNBA and men’s tennis for some reason. He has watched more UAlbany Great Danes basketball than anyone should consume.