Baltimore Orioles vs Cleveland Guardians Pick – 7/23/2025

The Cleveland Guardians are slight favorites against the Baltimore Orioles at Progressive Field on Wednesday night. The Guardians have won the first two games of this four-game series and will look to secure a third straight win here. Continue scrolling to get my analysis for this American League matchup, including my Orioles vs Guardians prediction for tonight’s game.

Our Orioles vs Guardians Pick

• Pick: Guardians to win
• Confidence: 3 stars
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Game Snapshot

• Matchup: Guardians vs Orioles
• Date & Time: Wednesday, July 23, 2025, 6:40 PM EDT
• Starting Pitchers: Zach Eflin (BAL) vs Slade Cecconi (CLE)
• Stadium: Progressive Field, Cleveland, OH
• Broadcast: MASN, FDSN OH

Key Storylines

• Pitching Form: Zach Eflin returns from the IL after a lower back strain. He lost his last three starts prior to going on the IL in late June and his level will be of vital importance to the O’s in this game. Slade Cecconi has been consistent for the Guardians with a 3.84 ERA this season. I would give the starting pitching edge to Cleveland in this game.
• Bullpen Usage: The Orioles have had more trouble with their bullpen in this series than the Guardians have. Baltimore has allowed 16 runs in their last two games in Cleveland and their pen has a lot to do with those struggles.
• Recent Team Streaks: The Guardians are on a three-game home winning streak. The Orioles are looking to rebound after two consecutive losses at Progressive Field.

Best Player Props

Betting Trends & H2H

• The Guardians have taken a 3-2 lead in their season series with the Orioles after winning two straight against them this week.
• The Guardians are back to .500 at home after those two straight wins. They are 24-24 at home for the year.

Orioles vs Guardians Model Projection

• Score Projection: Guardians 5 – Orioles 4
• Win Probability: Guardians 55%, Orioles 45%

Final Thoughts

I am very interested to see how Zach Eflin looks in his return from the IL. But based on his numbers so far this season there is cause for concern there. I will take the Guardians in this game, as they should take advantage of Eflin’s struggles as he gets back into the swing of things. Cleveland will go into Thursday with a chance to complete a four-game sweep.

Jay Sanin

Jay Sanin is a sports bettor, writer and broadcaster from New York. He is an avid New York Knicks fan and is no longer ashamed to admit it. He is also an avid New York Giants fan, and is very ashamed to admit it. His top sports to handicap are the NBA, WNBA and men’s tennis for some reason. He has watched more UAlbany Great Danes basketball than anyone should consume.