Baltimore Orioles vs Cleveland Guardians Pick – 7/21/2025

The Cleveland Guardians will host the Baltimore Orioles in the first game of a four-game series on Monday night. Both of these teams are below the .500 mark for the season and need to string together some wins to get back into playoff contention. Which team will get the win in this series opener? To get our answer to that question, continue reading to get my Orioles vs Guardians prediction.

Our Orioles vs Guardians Pick

• Pick: Cleveland Guardians moneyline
• Confidence: ★★★★☆
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Game Snapshot

• Matchup: Cleveland Guardians vs Baltimore Orioles
• Date & Time: Monday, July 21, 2025, 6:40 p.m. ET
• Starting Pitchers: Tanner Bibee (CLE) vs Tomoyuki Sugano (BAL)
• Stadium: Progressive Field, Cleveland, OH
• Broadcast: CLEG & MASN2

Key Storylines

• Pitching Form: Tomyuki Sugano has been solid for Baltimore. He is 7-5 with a 4.44 ERA for the season. Sugano has just 59 strikeouts in 99.1 innings of work. He is not afraid to pitch to contact and we will see if that works for him here. Cleveland’s Tanner Bibee is 5-9 with a 4.29 ERA. He can struggle with control at times and that could hurt the Guardians in this game.
• Bullpen Usage: The Orioles are firmly in the bottom 10 in the league in bullpen ERA this season. The Guardians should have the edge in relief pitching throughout this series.
• Recent Team Streaks: The Guardians are 4-1 in their last five games. The Orioles are 1-4 in their last five games but they did win their most recent outing against the Tampa Bay Rays.

Best Player Props

Betting Trends & H2H

• The Orioles are 2-1 against the Guardians so far this year.
• Baltimore is 22-29 on the road this season. The Guardians are 22-24 at home.
• Both of these teams have gone under the total in over 53% of their games in the 2025 season.

Orioles vs Guardians Model Projection

Score Projection: Guardians 5 – Orioles 4

Win Probability: Guardians 54%, Orioles 46%

Final Thoughts

If either of these teams wants to make a run at a Wild Card spot, I think they need to sweep this series. I think the Guardians will keep their chance at doing so alive with a win on Monday night. Bibee is better than his record would suggest and Cleveland should hand the Orioles their fifth loss in six games when all is said and done.

Jay Sanin

Jay Sanin is a sports bettor, writer and broadcaster from New York. He is an avid New York Knicks fan and is no longer ashamed to admit it. He is also an avid New York Giants fan, and is very ashamed to admit it. His top sports to handicap are the NBA, WNBA and men’s tennis for some reason. He has watched more UAlbany Great Danes basketball than anyone should consume.