Baltimore Orioles vs Chicago White Sox Pick – 9/17/2025
The Baltimore Orioles and Chicago White Sox will meet in the South Side of Chicago on Wednesday afternoon. The White Sox have been eliminated from postseason contention and the Orioles are closing in on a similar fate. Baltimore will try to avoid elimination for another day with a win in this American League matchup. Before first pitch from Chicago, continue reading to get my Orioles vs White Sox prediction.
Our Orioles vs White Sox Pick
- Pick: Under 8.5 runs
- Confidence: ★★★☆☆
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Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Baltimore Orioles vs Chicago White Sox
- Date & Time: Wednesday, September 17, 2025, 2:10 PM ET
- Starting Pitchers: Tyler Wells vs Martín Pérez
- Stadium: Rate Field, Chicago, IL
- Broadcast: MLB.tv
Key Storylines
- Baltimore’s recent roller-coaster of form has been a sight to behold. They earned a 3-0 sweep of Pittsburgh before suffering a 3-0 sweep in Toronto. Now they are a win away from sweeping the White Sox.
- These teams are both playing for pride at this point in the season and it will be interesting to see who steps up without the stakes of a playoff race to worry about.
Pitching matchup
Tyler Wells is set to get the start for the Orioles in this game. Wells is 1-0 on the season and holds an ERA of 2.31 for the year, albeit over just 11.2 innings of work. He will try to prove that he is capable of maintaining those numbers as his sample size on the mound grows.
Chicago’s Martín Pérez owns a 1-5 mark with a sharp 3.27 ERA in 52.1 innings. Pérez’s crafty change-of-pace approach can neutralize Baltimore’s left-handed power. Baltimore’s overall OPS against southpaws is relatively low this year. Both pitchers benefit from a daytime start that historically dulls power at this park, and both bullpens should be reasonably set after the previous two nights.
Recent team streaks
- Baltimore has won two games in a row coming into this contest.
- Chicago has dropped five consecutive games entering Wednesday’s play.
Best Player Props
| Category | Player | Pick |
|---|---|---|
| Home Run | Lenyn Sosa | Over 0.5 |
| Strikeouts | Tyler Wells | Over 4.5 |
| Total Bases | Gunnar Henderson | Over 1.5 |
Betting Trends & H2H
- The Orioles have won all five games played between these teams this year.
- This is the final time the Orioles and White Sox will play in 2025.
- Three of Baltimore’s five wins against Chicago this year have been one-run games.
Orioles vs White Sox Model Projection
Score Projection: Orioles 4 – White Sox 3
Win Probability: Orioles 57%, White Sox 43%
Final Thoughts
We should see a low-scoring game in Chicago today. The White Sox are struggling offensively, averaging just over two runs per game over their last five games. Their struggles at the plate should continue today against the Orioles. I think that Baltimore wins this game and completes a season sweep of the White Sox. But my best bet is for this game to stay under 8.5 runs.
