Baltimore Orioles vs Boston Red Sox Prediction – 8/18/2025
This season has not gone according to plan for the Baltimore Orioles. They are in last place in the AL East but they are playing better baseball of late. They will try to continue their recent upward trend when they face the Boston Red Sox on Monday night. Boston is in position to make the playoffs and will aim to start off another series with a win here. Before first pitch from Fenway Park, continue reading to get my Orioles vs Red Sox prediction for tonight.
Our Orioles vs Red Sox Pick
- Pick: Baltimore Orioles Moneyline
- Confidence: 3/5
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Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Baltimore Orioles vs Boston Red Sox
- Date & Time: Monday, August 18, 2025, 7:10 p.m. ET
- Starting Pitchers:
- Orioles – Trevor Rogers (5-2, 1.43 ERA)
- Red Sox – Dustin May (7-8, 4.67 ERA)
- Stadium: Fenway Park, Boston, MA
- Broadcast: NESN and MASN
Key Storylines
Pitching matchup
Trevor Rogers has been a revelation for Baltimore with a 1.43 ERA this season. His recent form includes scoreless efforts in his last couple of starts and he will look to shut down the Red Sox in a similar fashion tonight. Dustin May has battled inconsistency this season. But his last outing was a strong one. He went six shutout innings with eight strikeouts in Houston and he will try to build on that with another quality start here.
Key Players
Jordan Westburg will be a player to watch for the Orioles tonight. He had four hits in Baltimore’s 12-0 win over the Houston Astros on Sunday. Boston’s lineup includes dangerous hitters like Wilyer Abreu and Trevor Story who can both hit for power.
Recent team streaks
Baltimore has won four of its last five games and took two out of three games from the Houston Astros over the weekend. Boston took two out of three games from the Miami Marlins in their most recent series.
Best Player Props
| Player | Stat Type | Projection |
|---|---|---|
| Trevor Story | Home runs | Over 0.5 |
| Dustin May | Strikeouts | Under 4.5 |
| Jackson Holliday | Total bases | Over 1.5 |
Betting Trends & H2H
- The Red Sox lead the season series with the Orioles 4-3.
- Baltimore has won the last two games they have played against the Sox.
- This is the first time these teams have played since May.
Orioles vs Red Sox Model Projection
Score Projection: Baltimore Orioles 6 – Boston Red Sox 4
Win Probability: Orioles 57%, Red Sox 43%
Final Thoughts
This should be a tight game throughout. I am once again expecting big things from Trevor Rogers on the mound for the Orioles. The question will be whether or not Dustin May can pitch well enough to keep the Red Sox in the game. I think May helps keep things close but that the quality of Rogers will be too much for Boston to overcome. I expect Baltimore to win their fifth game out of six with a win on the road here.
