Baltimore Orioles vs Boston Red Sox Prediction – 5/22/2025

As the Boston Red Sox prepare to host the Baltimore Orioles on May 22, 2025, both teams are looking to improve their standings in the American League East. The Red Sox sit at 25-26, showing signs of an average season, while the Orioles struggle at 16-32, marking a particularly tough stretch. This matchup is significant as it kicks off a series between two rivals, and the stakes are heightened given both teams' need to gain momentum.

So far this season, Boston's offense has demonstrated its prowess, ranking as the 8th best in MLB. With a solid team batting average ranking of 9th and an impressive 8th in home runs, they could exploit the Orioles' pitching struggles, particularly against left-handed pitchers.

Projected starters Lucas Giolito and Cade Povich present an interesting dynamic. Giolito, despite a rough season, has a 4.23 xFIP that suggests he has been unlucky and may be poised for better outings. He averages 5.5 innings pitched with 2.7 earned runs allowed. In contrast, Povich's projections indicate he may struggle, allowing 5.1 hits and 2.1 walks, which could play into the Red Sox's hands.

While the Red Sox's bullpen ranks 10th in MLB, the Orioles boast the 3rd best, which could keep them competitive if the game remains close. However, betting markets currently favor Boston with a moneyline of -125, implying a higher chance of victory based on their offensive capabilities and the matchup against a struggling Orioles squad. If Boston can capitalize on their offensive strengths and Giolito can find his groove, they should secure a win in this pivotal game.

Quick Takes Baltimore Orioles:

The Baltimore Orioles infield defense projects as the 2nd-best among every team today.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.

Jackson Holliday is an extreme groundball hitter and faces the strong infield defense of Boston (#1-best of all teams today).

• This player's skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team's defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Baltimore Orioles' bullpen ranks as the 4th-best out of all teams in the majors.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes Boston Red Sox:

Lucas Giolito projects to strikeout an average of 5.3 batters in this game, as forecasted by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, and more.

Trevor Story is penciled in 6th in the batting order in today's game, which would be a downgrade from his 79% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this year.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Jarren Duran has a 98th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (40.5%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them out towards MLB's shallowest LF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 22 of their last 35 games (+8.00 Units / 19% ROI)
• The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Team Total Under in 28 of their last 41 games (+13.70 Units / 29% ROI)
• Gunnar Henderson has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 19 of his last 25 away games (+13.35 Units / 47% ROI)

Baltimore Orioles vs Boston Red Sox Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Baltimore Orioles 4.6, Boston Red Sox 4.42

• Date: May 22, 2025
• Venue: Fenway Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Cade Povich - Orioles
  • Lucas Giolito - Red Sox

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