Baltimore Orioles vs Boston Red Sox Pick – 8/19/2025
The Boston Red Sox dropped the first game of their two-game series at home against the Baltimore Orioles on Monday. Boston is favored over the Orioles in Tuesday’s game as they look to salvage a split in the series. Before these teams begin the final game of their series, I have left you my analysis and my Orioles vs Red Sox prediction for this game below.
Our Orioles vs Red Sox Pick
- Pick: Over 9.5
- Confidence: 3/5
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Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Baltimore Orioles vs Boston Red Sox
- Date & Time: Tuesday, August 19, 2025, 7:10 p.m. ET
- Starting Pitchers: Tomoyuki Sugano (Orioles) vs Walker Buehler (Red Sox)
- Stadium: Fenway Park, Boston, MA
- Broadcast: NESN (Boston), MASN (Baltimore)
Key Storylines
Pitching Matchup
Tomoyuki Sugano will take the mound with a 10-5 record and a 4.13 ERA. He’s allowed two earned runs over 12.1 innings over his last two starts and will try to stay hot in this contest. Walker Buehler will get the ball to start this game for Boston. Buehler has a 7-7 record with a 5.43 ERA in 106.2 innings. He has improved since the All-Star break with a 3.54 ERA over that span.
Key Players
Gunnar Henderson had seven total bases for the Orioles on Monday and drove in two runs. If he can rack up more extra-base hits the Orioles could win again on Tuesday. Jarren Duran drove in all three runs for the Red Sox in their loss on Monday and will be a key player in this game also.
Recent Team Streaks
Baltimore enters with momentum after winning four of their last five games. The Red Sox dropped their last two games. They are in a three-way tie for the American League Wild Card spots with the Seattle Mariners and New York Yankees.
Best Player Props
| Player | Stat | Prop Suggestion |
|---|---|---|
| Jarren Duran (BOS) | Home Runs | Over 0.5 |
| Walker Buehler | Strikeouts | Under 4.5 |
| Gunnar Henderson (BAL) | Total bases | Over 1.5 |
Betting Trends & H2H
- Boston and Baltimore are tied 4-4 in their season series so far this year.
- Baltimore has won the last three games between these teams.
Orioles vs Red Sox Model Projection
Score Projection: Boston Red Sox 6 – Baltimore Orioles 5
Win Probability: Red Sox 57%, Orioles 43%
Final Thoughts
I think we are in for some positive regression from the Boston Red Sox offense in this contest. Everyone but Duran struggled at the dish in the first game of this series. Sugano is a solid starter for the Orioles but the bats of the Red Sox should wake up here. I’ll take the over in this game as I think we are more likely to see that come to pass than for this game to go definitively in one direction or the other.
