Baltimore Orioles vs Boston Red Sox Pick – 5/25/2025

On May 25, 2025, the Boston Red Sox will host the Baltimore Orioles at Fenway Park for the fourth game of their series. As the teams stand, the Red Sox are hovering around .500 with a record of 27-27, while the Orioles are struggling significantly at 17-34. This matchup showcases an American League East clash, where the Red Sox's offensive prowess, ranked 5th in MLB, significantly overshadows the Orioles, who sit at 22nd.

In this game, the Red Sox will face Dean Kremer, who has struggled this season with a 5.50 ERA and a low strikeout rate of 16.5%. Kremer's projections indicate he will allow an average of 3.0 earned runs and 5.5 hits today, which could spell trouble against a potent Red Sox lineup.

On the mound for the Red Sox, Walker Buehler is set to start. Despite being ranked 133rd among MLB starters, his 4-1 record and 4.00 ERA this season suggest he has been effective enough. However, Buehler's projection of 3.8 innings pitched and 1.9 earned runs raises concerns about his ability to go deep into the game. Given that both pitchers are right-handed, the matchup could favor the Red Sox's hitters more than the Orioles'.

With a game total of 9.5 runs, the betting market indicates a close contest, but the Red Sox's high implied team total of 5.02 runs suggests they are expected to capitalize on their offensive advantages. As they look to improve their standing, this game presents a critical opportunity for Boston to assert dominance over a struggling Baltimore team.

Quick Takes Baltimore Orioles:

The Baltimore Orioles outfield defense grades out as the 2nd-weakest out of every team on the slate today.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.

Jackson Holliday has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this year (72% of the time), but he is projected to bat 1st in the lineup in today's game.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

The Baltimore Orioles have been the 4th-unluckiest offense in the majors this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to positively regress in the future

• When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Quick Takes Boston Red Sox:

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) expects Walker Buehler to be on a pitch count in today's game, projecting a maximum of 65 pitches.

• A pitcher who is on a pitch count is likely to be pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.

Ceddanne Rafaela has seen a sizeable improvement in his exit velocity this season; just compare his 91.5-mph average to last season's 86.6-mph average.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Boston Red Sox' bullpen profiles as the 7th-best among all teams in Major League Baseball.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Boston Red Sox have hit the Team Total Under in 27 of their last 44 games (+7.65 Units / 15% ROI)
• The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Team Total Under in 26 of their last 39 games (+11.25 Units / 24% ROI)
• Wilyer Abreu has hit the Singles Under in 16 of his last 20 games at home (+8.50 Units / 22% ROI)

Baltimore Orioles vs Boston Red Sox Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Baltimore Orioles 4.73, Boston Red Sox 4.81

• Date: May 25, 2025
• Venue: Fenway Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Dean Kremer - Orioles
  • Walker Buehler - Red Sox

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