Baltimore Orioles vs Boston Red Sox Game 1 Pick – 5/24/2025

On May 24, 2025, the Boston Red Sox will host the Baltimore Orioles at Fenway Park for the first game of a doubleheader, following the Red Sox's victory in their game on Friday. Currently, the Red Sox sit at .500 with a record of 26-26, while the Orioles are struggling significantly with a 16-33 record. This matchup in the American League East will feature pitchers with contrasting performances: Hunter Dobbins for the Red Sox and Zach Eflin for the Orioles.

Dobbins, ranked as the 161st best starting pitcher in MLB, has posted a 3.62 ERA this season but projects to have a tough outing today, averaging just 4.9 innings pitched and allowing 5.4 hits. Despite being a low-walk pitcher (3.7 BB%), he faces an Orioles offense that ranks 23rd in the league, making it difficult for them to capitalize on his strike-throwing approach.

On the flip side, Eflin holds a more respectable ranking at 61st, with a 5.08 ERA. However, he has a concerning 14.8% strikeout rate and projects to allow 6.2 hits while also having a below-average strikeout projection against a Red Sox lineup that ranks 7th overall in offense this season. The Red Sox's strong offensive showing, including being in the top 10 for home runs and batting average, gives them a significant edge.

Game Trends

• The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 24 of their last 47 games (+8.65 Units / 13% ROI)
• The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Team Total Under in 28 of their last 42 games (+12.50 Units / 26% ROI)

Baltimore Orioles vs Boston Red Sox Game 1 Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Baltimore Orioles 5.04, Boston Red Sox 4.58

• Date: May 24, 2025
• Venue: Fenway Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Zach Eflin - Orioles
  • Hunter Dobbins - Red Sox

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