Baltimore Orioles vs Boston Red Sox Game 1 Pick – 5/23/2025

The Boston Red Sox and Baltimore Orioles will square off in the first game of their doubleheader on Wednesday, May 23 at Fenway Park. Their game on Thursday was washed out, meaning double the fun on Friday. This season has been a disaster so far for the Orioles, who enter this game in last place in the AL East, while the Red Sox are in third place and hovering around the .500 mark for the year.

Baltimore is set to start Cade Povich in the first game of this doubleheader. Povich has had a rough start to his 2025 season, going 1-3 with a 5.23 ERA. In his last start, Povich struck out nine Washington Nationals and gave up two runs in 5.2 innings of work. But he settled for a no decision in a game the Orioles ended up losing 4-3 to their beltway rivals.

Boston will oppose Povich with Brayan Bello, who has a winning record despite pedestrian individual numbers. Bello is 2-1 for the season, posting an ERA of 4.02. He is coming off of his worst start of the season in his last outing, allowing seven earned runs in 4.1 innings of work. Bello will need to bounce back nicely in this matchup to help his team avoid a loss to one of baseball's biggest disappointments.

Boston is a slight favorite going into Game 1 of today's doubleheader, with odds of -130. The total for this matchup is set at 9.5, which speaks to the offensive upside of both teams and the fact that both pitching staffs have their vulnerabilities that can be exploited.

Quick Takes Baltimore Orioles:

Jackson Holliday has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this season (76% of the time), but he is projected to bat 1st on the lineup card today.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

The Baltimore Orioles bullpen grades out as the 2nd-best in the league, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes Boston Red Sox:

Jarren Duran has been hot of late, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 92.2-mph to 99.8-mph over the past week.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Jarren Duran has a 98th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (40.4%) and will have a big advantage hitting them out towards the game's shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 22 of their last 35 games (+8.00 Units / 19% ROI)
• The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Team Total Under in 26 of their last 37 games (+13.60 Units / 31% ROI)

Baltimore Orioles vs Boston Red Sox Game 1 Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Baltimore Orioles 4.75, Boston Red Sox 5.02

• Date: May 23, 2025
• Venue: Fenway Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Cade Povich - Orioles
  • Brayan Bello - Red Sox

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