Baltimore Orioles vs Boston Red Sox Betting Pick & Preview – 9/9/2024

• Date: September 9, 2024
• Venue: Fenway Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Cade Povich - Orioles
  • Brayan Bello - Red Sox

Betting Odds

Baltimore Orioles vs Boston Red Sox Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Baltimore Orioles vs Boston Red Sox Betting Preview

As the Baltimore Orioles visit Fenway Park to take on the Boston Red Sox on September 9, 2024, both teams find themselves in different places in the standings. The Orioles, boasting an impressive 82-62 record, are firmly in contention with a solid season, while the Red Sox sit at 72-71, having an average year. This matchup marks the first game of the series, and both teams are looking to gain an edge.

Brayan Bello is projected to take the mound for the Red Sox, entering this game with a 12-7 record and a 4.75 ERA. Bello has been considered a decent pitcher this season, ranking 53rd among starting pitchers in MLB according to advanced stats. He’s a high-groundball pitcher, which could be beneficial against the Orioles' powerful offense, which leads the league with 157 home runs. However, Bello’s projections show he may struggle with an average of 5.5 hits allowed and 1.8 walks today, both of which could be detrimental against a potent lineup.

On the other side, Cade Povich will start for the Orioles. With a troubling 2-7 record and a 5.76 ERA, Povich has not performed well this season and ranks poorly among his peers. His low strikeout rate of 17.3% could be a liability against a Red Sox offense that ranks 6th in MLB. Povich's projections also indicate he may allow 5.1 hits and 1.9 walks, which could lead to trouble in a high-scoring affair.

The Red Sox's offense is ranked 6th overall and 4th in batting average, which will likely put pressure on Povich. Meanwhile, Tyler O'Neill has been the standout hitter for Boston over the last week, contributing significantly with a .300 batting average and 1.017 OPS. The game total is set at a high 9.5 runs, indicating expectations for a competitive matchup.

With the Red Sox's bullpen ranked 12th and the Orioles' at 28th, the late innings could be crucial. Betting markets currently favor the Red Sox, setting their moneyline at -120, reflecting the belief that this matchup will be closely contested.

Quick Takes Baltimore Orioles:

Recording 14.8 outs per GS this year on average, Cade Povich places him the 17th percentile.

• A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.

Boston's #2-ranked outfield defense of all teams on the slate today poses a formidable challenge for Jackson Holliday, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.

• This player's skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team's defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

The Baltimore Orioles projected lineup grades out as the 3rd-strongest on the slate in terms of overall batting ability.

• A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Quick Takes Boston Red Sox:

Brayan Bello's higher usage percentage of his secondary pitches this season (56.5% vs. 43.1% last year) figures to work in his favor since they are typically much more effective than fastballs.

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

Trevor Story has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this year (80% of the time), but he is projected to hit 7th on the lineup card in this matchup.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Boston Red Sox hitters as a group rank among the elite in the league this year (9th-) when assessing their 89.1-mph average exit velocity.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Game Trends

• The Boston Red Sox have hit the Team Total Under in 15 of their last 23 games (+6.95 Units / 27% ROI)
• The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Run Line in 71 of their last 131 games (+17.30 Units / 11% ROI)
• Colton Cowser has hit the Hits Over in 19 of his last 24 away games (+10.50 Units / 25% ROI)

Baltimore Orioles vs Boston Red Sox Prediction

Final Score: Baltimore Orioles 5.23 vs Boston Red Sox 5.21

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.