Baltimore Orioles vs Boston Red Sox Betting Pick & Preview – 4/10/2024

Baltimore Orioles vs Boston Red Sox Overview

• Date: April 10, 2024
• Venue: Fenway Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Cole Irvin - Orioles
  • Kutter Crawford - Red Sox
• Run Line: Orioles 1.5 -190, Red Sox -1.5 165
• Money Line: Orioles -110, Red Sox -110
• Total (Over/Under):9 -110

Baltimore Orioles vs Boston Red Sox Win Probabilities

Implied Win %:

• Baltimore Orioles - 50%
• Boston Red Sox - 50%

Projected Win %:

• Baltimore Orioles - 48.55%
• Boston Red Sox - 51.45%

Baltimore Orioles vs Boston Red Sox Game Preview & Prediction

In a highly anticipated American League East matchup, the Baltimore Orioles will take on the Boston Red Sox at Fenway Park on April 10, 2024. The Red Sox will serve as the home team, looking to maintain their strong season record of 7-4. The Orioles, with a record of 6-4, are also having a great season.

Kutter Crawford is expected to start on the mound for the Red Sox. As a right-handed pitcher, Crawford has displayed excellent form this season, with an impressive ERA of 0.84. However, his xFIP suggests that he may have been fortunate so far and could potentially face more challenges going forward.

On the other side, the Orioles will rely on left-handed pitcher Cole Irvin. Irvin has struggled this season, with an ERA of 7.20. However, his xFIP indicates that he has been unlucky and might perform better in the near future.

The Red Sox offense has been solid this season, ranked as the 14th best in MLB. They excel in team batting average, ranking third in the league. However, their ranking in home runs and stolen bases is average. The Orioles offense, on the other hand, ranks lower at 22nd in MLB, with average rankings in team batting average, home runs, and stolen bases.

According to the current odds, the Red Sox have a higher projected win probability with a moneyline set at -120. Despite this, the betting markets foresee a close game, as the Orioles have a moneyline of +100.

Quick Takes Baltimore Orioles:

Out of all the teams playing today, the 4th-worst outfield defense is that of the the Baltimore Orioles.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.

Ryan Mountcastle has been cold of late, notching a 0% Barrel% (a reliable stat to study power) in the last two weeks.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), Adley Rutschman (the Orioles's expected catcher in today's matchup) projects as an elite pitch framer.

• Pitch framing is a catcher's ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, "stealing" strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Quick Takes Boston Red Sox:

Compared to the average hurler, Kutter Crawford has been given a below-average leash since the start of last season, throwing an -8.4 fewer adjusted pitches each game.

• Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.

Final Score Prediction: Baltimore Orioles 4.61 vs Boston Red Sox 4.5

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