Baltimore Orioles vs Atlanta Braves Prediction – 7/6/2025

As the Baltimore Orioles travel to Truist Park this Sunday, July 6, they’ll battle the Atlanta Braves in a clash of underperforming clubs, each sitting at 39‑49. The Braves are favored, but their recent losing streak makes them anything but a sure thing. Here, I break down this interleague matchup and make my Orioles vs Braves prediction for Sunday morning.

Our Orioles vs Braves Pick

• Pick: Baltimore Orioles Moneyline (+135)
• Confidence: ★★★☆☆
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Game Snapshot

• Matchup: Baltimore Orioles vs Atlanta Braves
• Date & Time: Sunday, July 6, 2025, 11:35 a.m. ET
• Starting Pitchers: Trevor Rogers (BAL, 1‑0, 2.05 ERA) vs Grant Holmes (ATL, 4‑7, 3.47 ERA)
• Stadium: Truist Park, Atlanta, GA
• Broadcast: Roku

Key Storylines

Pitching form

• Grant Holmes has been solid but unlucky. He has a respectable 3.47 ERA and an impressive 113 K in 96.2 IP. But he’s just 4-7 on the season and needs some help from his hitters to improve on that today.
• Trevor Rogers has been sharp, with a 2.05 ERA and .864 WHIP in four starts. Here, he will look to help the Orioles secure a sweep of the Braves on the road.

Bullpen usage

The Orioles’ bullpen ranks among MLB’s weakest, but that has not stopped them from winning the first two games of this series. Atlanta’s bullpen is a middle of the pack group, which has not been good enough of late.

Recent team streaks

• Baltimore has won three of its last five games.
• Atlanta has dropped three straight entering this series finale.

Best Player Props

Betting Trends & H2H

• Atlanta is 37-51 on the runline this season, second-worst in MLB ahead of only the Rockies.
• Baltimore isn’t much better at 38-50 on the runline for the year.
• Baltimore leads the season series 2-0.

Orioles vs Braves Model Projection

Score Projection: Baltimore 4.5 – Atlanta 4.8

Win Probability: Atlanta 59%, Baltimore 41%

Final Thoughts

With two struggling teams on the field, this contest will hinge on starting pitching and bullpen depth. Holmes gives the Braves a chance, but we haven’t seen him make enough of a difference to make up for Atlanta’s shortcomings elsewhere. I’ll take the Orioles to win this game as an underdog, as they appear to be worth a shout at plus money to finish off a three-game sweep of a disappointing Braves team.

Jay Sanin

Jay Sanin is a sports bettor, writer and broadcaster from New York. He is an avid New York Knicks fan and is no longer ashamed to admit it. He is also an avid New York Giants fan, and is very ashamed to admit it. His top sports to handicap are the NBA, WNBA and men’s tennis for some reason. He has watched more UAlbany Great Danes basketball than anyone should consume.