Baltimore Orioles vs Atlanta Braves Prediction – 7/4/2025

The Baltimore Orioles head to Truist Park to take on the Atlanta Braves on Friday, July 4, 2025. The Braves, sitting at 39‑47, need to start stringing some wins together to compete in the NL Wild Card race. The same can be said for Baltimore in the American League. Here, we break down this battle of desperate teams and give you our Orioles vs Braves prediction for Independence Day.

Our Orioles vs Braves Pick

Pick: Atlanta Braves -1.5 (+114)

Confidence: 4 ★

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Game Snapshot

• Matchup: Baltimore Orioles vs Atlanta Braves
• Date & Time: Friday, July 4, 2025 at 7:15 p.m. ET
• Starting Pitchers: Charlie Morton (4‑7, 5.63 ERA) vs Spencer Strider (3‑6, 3.86 ERA)
• Stadium: Truist Park, Atlanta, GA
• Broadcast: MLB Network, FDSSO, MASN

Key Storylines

• Pitching form: Charlie Morton has a 4-7 record and a 5.63 ERA this year. Atlanta’s Spencer Strider has been better despite battling injuries. He has a 3.86 ERA and will hope for more run support to improve on his 3-6 record.
• Bullpen usage: Atlanta’s relievers have been much better than those of the Orioles. Atlanta’s bullpen ERA is 3.63, while the Orioles have a 4.61 ERA from their bullpen.
• Recent team streaks: Braves have lost three of their last four games, struggling in their last series against the Los Angeles Angels. Baltimore has lost two games in a row, losing those games by a combined 16-2 margin against the Texas Rangers.

Best Player Props

Betting Trends & H2H

• Braves are 35-33 as favorites this season.
• Baltimore is 16-25 as an underdog in 2025.
• This is the first game of the season series between these teams. Their three-game series this weekend is the lone series between them for the year.
• Atlanta holds a +9 run differential for the season despite having a losing record.

Orioles vs Braves Model Projection

Score Projection: Braves 5 – Orioles 3

Win Probability: Braves 58%, Orioles 42%

Final Thoughts

Spencer Strider has been better than his individual record would suggest this year. I give the Braves the advantage when it comes to starting pitching in this game, as he should be better than Morton for the O’s. That, combined with the bullpen edge for the Braves in this series, should help Atlanta win the first game of this series with some margin. I’ll lay the runline with the home team tonight.

Jay Sanin

Jay Sanin is a sports bettor, writer and broadcaster from New York. He is an avid New York Knicks fan and is no longer ashamed to admit it. He is also an avid New York Giants fan, and is very ashamed to admit it. His top sports to handicap are the NBA, WNBA and men’s tennis for some reason. He has watched more UAlbany Great Danes basketball than anyone should consume.