Baltimore Orioles at Toronto Blue Jays Pick & Prediction – 6/4/2024

Baltimore Orioles vs Toronto Blue Jays Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: June 4, 2024
• Venue: Rogers Centre
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Corbin Burnes - Orioles
  • Bowden Francis - Blue Jays

Betting Odds

Baltimore Orioles vs Toronto Blue Jays Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Baltimore Orioles vs Toronto Blue Jays Betting Preview

The Blue Jays are projected to start right-handed pitcher Bowden Francis, who has struggled this season. According to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, Francis is ranked as the #208 best starting pitcher in MLB, indicating he is one of the worst in the league. He has a Win/Loss record of 2-2 and an ERA of 8.59. However, his 3.70 xFIP suggests that he has been unlucky and may perform better going forward.

The Orioles, on the other hand, are projected to start right-handed pitcher Corbin Burnes. Burnes is ranked as the #19 best starting pitcher in MLB, indicating he is a strong pitcher. He has a Win/Loss record of 5-2 and an impressive ERA of 2.35. However, his 3.21 xFIP suggests that he has been lucky and may not continue to perform at the same level.

In their last meeting, the Orioles defeated the Blue Jays by a score of 7-2. The Blue Jays' offense ranks as the #16 best in MLB, with a strong team batting average, but they rank average in home runs and stolen bases. The Orioles' offense, on the other hand, ranks as the #5 best in MLB, with a solid team batting average, but they rank average in home runs and stolen bases.

According to THE BAT X, the Blue Jays have a win probability of 46% for this game, while the Orioles have a win probability of 54%. The betting odds also favor the Orioles as the favorite, with an implied win probability of 60%. However, THE BAT X suggests that the Blue Jays may have a higher win probability than the betting market suggests, indicating potential value in betting on the Blue Jays.

Overall, this game promises to be a close matchup, with the Orioles having the edge in terms of overall performance this season. The Blue Jays will rely on their offense, led by Vladimir Guerrero Jr., to try and overcome the strong pitching of Corbin Burnes. However, the Orioles have the advantage in terms of pitching and offensive prowess, making them the favorite in this game.

Quick Takes Baltimore Orioles:

Corbin Burnes's cutter rate has fallen by 9.9% from last season to this one (55.4% to 45.5%) .

• Because cutters are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use them less often may see less success as a result, particularly if he uses his fastball more instead.

Extreme flyball batters like Anthony Santander are generally less successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Bowden Francis.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Cedric Mullins II hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.5% — 86th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the game's 10th-shallowest CF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Toronto Blue Jays:

Among all SPs, Bowden Francis's fastball spin rate of 2373 rpm is in the 75th percentile this year.

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

George Springer has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (75% of the time), but he is projected to bat 6th on the lineup card in today's game.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

The Toronto Blue Jays (20.6 K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) are projected to have the 4th-least strikeout-heavy team of batters of the day.

• THE BAT X analyzes each player in today's specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Game Trends

• The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 28 of their last 49 games (+4.50 Units / 7% ROI)
• The Baltimore Orioles have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 29 of their last 45 games (+11.15 Units / 20% ROI)
• Bo Bichette has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 17 of his last 25 games at home (+9.95 Units / 33% ROI)

Baltimore Orioles vs Toronto Blue Jays Prediction

Final Score: Baltimore Orioles 4.67 vs Toronto Blue Jays 4.05

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