Baltimore Orioles at Toronto Blue Jays Pick For 6/6/2024

Baltimore Orioles vs Toronto Blue Jays Details

• Date: June 6, 2024
• Venue: Rogers Centre
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Cade Povich - Orioles
  • Yusei Kikuchi - Blue Jays

Betting Odds

Baltimore Orioles vs Toronto Blue Jays Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Baltimore Orioles vs Toronto Blue Jays Betting Preview

The Toronto Blue Jays will be hosting the Baltimore Orioles in an American League East matchup at Rogers Centre on June 6, 2024. The Blue Jays, with a season record of 29-32, are having a below-average season, while the Orioles are having a great season with a record of 39-21.

The Blue Jays are projected to start left-handed pitcher Yusei Kikuchi, who has started 12 games this year. Kikuchi has a win-loss record of 2-5 with an ERA of 3.66, which is considered good. His 2.99 FIP suggests that he has been unlucky this season and is likely to perform better going forward. On average, Kikuchi is projected to pitch 5.2 innings, allow 2.6 earned runs, and strike out 6.0 batters per game. However, he is projected to allow 5.0 hits and 1.8 walks, which are considered below average and terrible, respectively.

The Orioles are projected to start left-handed pitcher Cade Povich, who is expected to pitch 4.6 innings on average. Povich's earned run projection is below average, allowing 2.5 earned runs per game. He is also projected to strike out 4.0 batters but allow 4.7 hits and 1.6 walks per game, which are considered below average and terrible, respectively.

In terms of offense, the Blue Jays rank as the 17th best in MLB this season, with an average team batting average. The Orioles, on the other hand, have the 4th best offense in MLB, indicating a great ranking. Both teams have an average bullpen ranking according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings.

When looking at the team's best hitters over the last 7 games, the Blue Jays' standout performer has been Daulton Varsho, while Austin Hays has been the Orioles' top hitter. Varsho has recorded 5 hits with a batting average of .294 and an OPS of .980, while Hays has recorded 6 hits, 4 RBIs, and 2 home runs, with a batting average of .462 and an OPS of 1.577.

The game total for today's matchup is set at 8.5 runs, which is considered average. The Blue Jays have a higher projected win probability of 53%, according to THE BAT X, compared to the Orioles' 47%.

Based on the current odds, the Blue Jays have a higher implied team total of 4.35 runs, while the Orioles have an average implied team total of 4.15 runs. THE BAT X projects the Blue Jays to score 4.78 runs on average, slightly higher than the Orioles' projection of 4.76 runs.

Quick Takes Baltimore Orioles:

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Cedric Mullins II's true offensive ability to be a .306, providing some evidence that he has suffered from bad luck this year given the .070 discrepancy between that figure and his actual .236 wOBA.

• Players that are underperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Overs if the lines are too heavily weighing the unlucky, to-date underperformance.

Baltimore's 89.4-mph average exit velocity since the start of last season is among the best in the game: #5 overall.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Quick Takes Toronto Blue Jays:

Tallying 92.9 adjusted pitches per game per started this year on average, Yusei Kikuchi places in the 79th percentile.

• Pitchers who average more pitches per game are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

George Springer is penciled in 6th on the lineup card today, which would be a downgrade from his 74% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this year.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39% — 92nd percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards MLB's 10th-shallowest CF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Team Total Under in 27 of their last 47 games (+5.25 Units / 10% ROI)
• The Baltimore Orioles have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 25 of their last 37 games (+11.70 Units / 26% ROI)
• Ryan Mountcastle has hit the Singles Under in 8 of his last 11 away games (+6.35 Units / 56% ROI)

Baltimore Orioles vs Toronto Blue Jays Prediction

Final Score: Baltimore Orioles 4.76 vs Toronto Blue Jays 4.78

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