Baltimore Orioles at Texas Rangers Best Bet – 7/21/2024

Baltimore Orioles vs Texas Rangers Details

• Date: July 21, 2024
• Venue: Globe Life Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Dean Kremer - Orioles
  • Andrew Heaney - Rangers

Betting Odds

Baltimore Orioles vs Texas Rangers Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Baltimore Orioles vs Texas Rangers Betting Preview

As the Texas Rangers prepare to host the Baltimore Orioles on July 21, 2024, at Globe Life Field, the contrasting fortunes of these two teams will be on full display. The Rangers enter this American League matchup with a sub-par 46-52 record, while the Orioles boast an impressive 60-38 record, reflecting their strong season.

On the mound for Texas, Andrew Heaney, a left-handed pitcher, will be making his 19th start of the season. Heaney holds a 3-10 Win/Loss record with a respectable 3.79 ERA, though his Power Rankings position at #138 among starters suggests a below-average performance overall. Despite his solid ERA, Heaney's high-flyball tendencies may play into the hands of the Orioles' power-heavy lineup, which ranks 1st in MLB with 149 home runs this season.

Baltimore counters with right-hander Dean Kremer, who has had a rocky season despite his 4-5 record. Kremer's 4.38 ERA aligns with an average performance, but his 5.36 xERA indicates luck has been a significant factor in his results. Heaney projects to pitch 5.1 innings and allow 2.5 earned runs, matching Kremer's projected 5.1 innings and 2.8 earned runs, setting the stage for an evenly contested game.

Offensively, the Orioles hold a notable edge. They rank 3rd in overall offense, 9th in team batting average, and 1st in home runs. In contrast, the Rangers rank 20th in offense, 17th in team batting average, and 17th in home runs, reflecting their struggles at the plate.

Both bullpens are considered average, with the Rangers ranked 15th and the Orioles 18th in Power Rankings. This could lead to a tight game where late-inning performances will be crucial.

Betting markets see this as a close matchup, with both teams' moneyline set at -110, translating to a 50% implied win probability. Given the Orioles' offensive firepower and the Rangers' below-average season, slight favoritism towards Baltimore might be justified. THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, sees this game as a balanced affair overall, with potential for fireworks given the Orioles' propensity for home runs against Heaney's flyball tendencies.

Quick Takes Baltimore Orioles:

Dean Kremer projects for an average of 1.7 walks in today's matchup, as forecasted by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, and more.

Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected HR per 600 plate appearances (26.4) implies that Gunnar Henderson has been lucky this year with his 38.4 actual HR/600.

• xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.

The 3rd-best projected batting order of all teams on the slate today in terms of overall offensive ability belongs to the Baltimore Orioles.

• A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Quick Takes Texas Rangers:

Andrew Heaney's higher usage rate of his secondary pitches this season (48.2% vs. 42.3% last year) figures to work in his favor considering they are typically much more effective than fastballs.

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

Corey Seager has struggled with his Barrel% lately; his 15.4% seasonal rate has decreased to 0% over the last week.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Texas Rangers hitters as a group place 22nd- in Major League Baseball for power this year when assessing with their 7.3% Barrel%.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Game Trends

• The Texas Rangers have hit the Game Total Under in 50 of their last 90 games (+11.70 Units / 12% ROI)
• The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Run Line in 28 of their last 46 away games (+13.15 Units / 23% ROI)
• Leody Taveras has hit the Total Bases Under in 13 of his last 16 games at home (+12.75 Units / 67% ROI)

Baltimore Orioles vs Texas Rangers Prediction

Final Score: Baltimore Orioles 4.4 vs Texas Rangers 4.8

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