Baltimore Orioles at Tampa Bay Rays Pick For 8/9/2024

Baltimore Orioles vs Tampa Bay Rays Details

• Date: August 9, 2024
• Venue: Tropicana Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Zach Eflin - Orioles
  • Zack Littell - Rays

Betting Odds

Baltimore Orioles vs Tampa Bay Rays Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Baltimore Orioles vs Tampa Bay Rays Betting Preview

As the Tampa Bay Rays prepare to host the Baltimore Orioles on August 9, 2024, this American League East matchup carries significant weight for both teams. Currently, the Orioles are in a strong position, boasting a record of 68-48 and standing as one of the top teams in the league. In contrast, the Rays find themselves at 58-56, showcasing an average season thus far. With the Rays' lackluster offensive performance—ranking 23rd in MLB—this game could be pivotal as they seek to gain ground in a competitive division.

Projected starters Zack Littell for the Rays and Zach Eflin for the Orioles present an intriguing matchup. Littell, ranking 118th among starting pitchers, has had an uneven season, with a 4.06 ERA and a Win/Loss record of 5-7. He struggles with allowing hits, projected to give up 5.2 on average today, which could be problematic against an Orioles lineup that leads the league with 157 home runs.

Zach Eflin, meanwhile, comes in with a much stronger profile, ranking 34th among MLB pitchers and carrying a 4.05 ERA. Eflin’s expected ERA of 3.39 suggests he has been a bit unlucky this year, indicating potential for improvement. Additionally, his ability to limit earned runs—projected at 2.2 today—could play a crucial role in this game.

Betting markets indicate a closely contested match, with the Rays currently at +110 and an implied team total of 3.57 runs, while the Orioles sit at -130 with a slightly higher total of 3.93. As the teams face off in this crucial matchup at Tropicana Field, the Orioles' potent offense against Littell could be the decisive factor in this clash.

Quick Takes Baltimore Orioles:

Among all the teams on the slate today, the 3rd-worst outfield defense belongs to the Baltimore Orioles.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.

Tampa Bay's #2-ranked outfield defense of all teams on the slate poses a formidable challenge for Anthony Santander, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.

• This player's skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team's defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Baltimore's 90-mph average exit velocity this year ranks among the elite in MLB: #2 overall.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Quick Takes Tampa Bay Rays:

Zack Littell is projected to allow an average of 1.2 walks in this matchup, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, and more.

Dylan Carlson is projected to hit 5th in the batting order in today's game, which would be an upgrade from his 84% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this year.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

Yandy Diaz has a 98th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (41.5%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards the league's 5th-shallowest RF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 57 of their last 96 games (+15.30 Units / 14% ROI)
• The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Game Total Over in 37 of their last 59 games (+16.35 Units / 25% ROI)
• Jackson Holliday has hit the Runs Over in his last 9 games (+14.05 Units / 156% ROI)

Baltimore Orioles vs Tampa Bay Rays Prediction

Final Score: Baltimore Orioles 4.51 vs Tampa Bay Rays 3.71

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