Baltimore Orioles at Tampa Bay Rays Pick For 8/10/2024

Baltimore Orioles vs Tampa Bay Rays Details

• Date: August 10, 2024
• Venue: Tropicana Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Corbin Burnes - Orioles
  • Drew Rasmussen - Rays

Betting Odds

Baltimore Orioles vs Tampa Bay Rays Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Baltimore Orioles vs Tampa Bay Rays Betting Preview

On August 10, 2024, the Tampa Bay Rays will host the Baltimore Orioles at Tropicana Field in what promises to be a compelling American League East matchup. The Orioles come into this game with a record of 69-48, reflecting a strong season, while the Rays sit at 58-57, marking a more average performance. Both teams are vying for position in the standings, as the Orioles look to build on their success, while the Rays hope to recover their momentum.

Drew Rasmussen, projected to start for the Rays, has been an enigma this season, with a 0.00 ERA and only one appearance out of the bullpen; however, he is expected to pitch just 3.9 innings on average today, potentially struggling against a potent Orioles lineup. The Orioles will counter with Corbin Burnes, who boasts a solid 12-4 record and a strong 2.63 ERA over 23 starts this year. Despite Burnes’ excellent numbers, his xFIP suggests he may have been a bit fortunate, potentially hinting at his future performance.

Offensively, the comparison heavily favors the Orioles, who rank 3rd in MLB in overall offense and 1st in home runs, showcasing their power with 157 dingers this season. In contrast, the Rays have struggled at the plate, ranking 21st in overall offense and 26th in home runs.

Betting markets have the Orioles as the favorites, but interestingly, projections suggest the Rays have a slightly better chance of winning than the odds would indicate. This discrepancy could lead to valuable betting opportunities for those willing to take a chance on the underdog. With the game total set at a low 7.0 runs, it could be a tight contest.

Quick Takes Baltimore Orioles:

Corbin Burnes's cut-fastball percentage has dropped by 11.7% from last season to this one (55.4% to 43.7%) .

• Because cutters are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use them less often may see less success as a result, particularly if he uses his fastball more instead.

Eloy Jimenez has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this season (95% of the time), but he is projected to hit 7th on the lineup card in this game.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Baltimore Orioles bats collectively rank among the best in Major League Baseball this year (2nd-) when assessing their 90-mph average exit velocity.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Quick Takes Tampa Bay Rays:

Out of all the teams in action today, the best infield defense is that of the the Tampa Bay Rays.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.

Ben Rortvedt's average exit velocity has decreased recently; his 87.1-mph seasonal average has fallen to 77.1-mph over the past 7 days.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Yandy Diaz has a 98th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (41.4%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards baseball's 5th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Team Total Under in 62 of their last 106 games (+13.95 Units / 11% ROI)
• The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Game Total Over in 30 of their last 45 games (+13.65 Units / 28% ROI)
• Gunnar Henderson has hit the Singles Over in 30 of his last 49 games (+7.95 Units / 13% ROI)

Baltimore Orioles vs Tampa Bay Rays Prediction

Final Score: Baltimore Orioles 4.39 vs Tampa Bay Rays 3.68

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