Baltimore Orioles at Seattle Mariners Pick For 7/3/2024

Baltimore Orioles vs Seattle Mariners Details

• Date: July 3, 2024
• Venue: T-Mobile Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Dean Kremer - Orioles
  • Logan Gilbert - Mariners

Betting Odds

Baltimore Orioles vs Seattle Mariners Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Baltimore Orioles vs Seattle Mariners Betting Preview

As the Seattle Mariners host the Baltimore Orioles on July 3, 2024, at T-Mobile Park, the matchup carries significant weight for both teams in the American League. The Orioles, boasting a stellar 54-31 record, are enjoying a fantastic season and looking to consolidate their position at the top. The Mariners, with a respectable 47-40 record, aim to stay competitive in the playoff race.

Yesterday, the Orioles edged out the Mariners in the series opener, setting the stage for an intriguing second game. Logan Gilbert takes the mound for Seattle, coming off a solid season with a 5-4 record and an impressive 2.72 ERA. Although his 3.46 xFIP suggests some regression could be in store, Gilbert remains a strong presence on the mound, ranking 44th among MLB starting pitchers. On the other hand, Baltimore’s Dean Kremer has struggled this season, holding a 4.32 ERA and a 5.48 xERA, indicating that he might not sustain even his average performance. Kremer's inconsistency could be a concern for the Orioles.

Offensively, the Mariners have had their struggles. Ranking 25th in overall offense and dead last in team batting average, Seattle's lineup has not been a powerhouse. However, they have shown some pop, sitting 12th in home runs. Recently, Cal Raleigh has been a bright spot, posting a .817 OPS over the last week. The Mariners will need more of that production to support Gilbert.

Baltimore, however, brings the 2nd-best offense to the table, leading the league in home runs and ranking 6th in batting average. Heston Kjerstad has been on fire, slashing .455 with a 1.691 OPS over the last week, including 2 home runs and 8 RBIs. This potent attack could pose a significant threat to Gilbert and the Mariners.

In the bullpen battle, Baltimore has a slight edge, ranking 12th compared to Seattle's 23rd. Given the Mariners’ bullpen struggles, it will be crucial for Gilbert to go deep into the game.

Betting markets have the Mariners as slight favorites with a -120 moneyline, implying a 52% win probability. THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, gives Seattle a 54% chance of victory, suggesting value on the Mariners in what is projected to be a closely contested game. With both teams’ implied team totals under 4 runs, expect a tight, low-scoring affair where pitching could make the difference.

Quick Takes Baltimore Orioles:

Dean Kremer's cutter percentage has jumped by 5.1% from last season to this one (23.9% to 29%) .

• Because cutters are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.

Jorge Mateo has struggled with his Barrel% in recent games; his 5% seasonal rate has decreased to 0% over the past two weeks.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Baltimore Orioles batters collectively grade out 2nd- in Major League Baseball for power this year when judging by their 9.9% Barrel%.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Quick Takes Seattle Mariners:

Logan Gilbert's 1976-rpm fastball spin rate this year is in the 1st percentile out of all starting pitchers.

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Dominic Canzone has been cold recently, with his seasonal exit velocity of 90-mph dropping to 80-mph over the past 7 days.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Jorge Polanco pulls a lot of his flyballs (40.3% — 98th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards MLB's 4th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Under in 20 of their last 29 games at home (+10.00 Units / 30% ROI)
• The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Run Line in 41 of their last 71 games (+17.95 Units / 22% ROI)
• Josh Rojas has hit the Hits Under in 17 of his last 29 games (+12.25 Units / 42% ROI)

Baltimore Orioles vs Seattle Mariners Prediction

Final Score: Baltimore Orioles 3.91 vs Seattle Mariners 4.05

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