Baltimore Orioles at Oakland Athletics Best Bet – 7/6/2024

Baltimore Orioles vs Oakland Athletics Details

• Date: July 6, 2024
• Venue: Oakland Coliseum
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Cade Povich - Orioles
  • Luis Medina - Athletics

Betting Odds

Baltimore Orioles vs Oakland Athletics Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Baltimore Orioles vs Oakland Athletics Betting Preview

As the 2024 season progresses, the Baltimore Orioles look to continue their impressive run as they visit the struggling Oakland Athletics on July 6. Baltimore is riding high with a 55-32 record, placing them among the league's elite, while Oakland is enduring a tough season with a 33-56 record. The Athletics aim to rebound after yesterday's loss to the Orioles in the series opener.

The Athletics will send right-hander Luis Medina to the mound. Medina has struggled this season, posting a 1-3 record and a below-average ERA of 4.80. His advanced metrics, including a 5.36 xFIP, suggest he's been fortunate thus far and might regress. Medina’s high-flyball rate (38%) and high-walk rate (11.1%) could spell trouble against a powerful Orioles lineup that leads the league with 142 home runs. The Orioles, not typically known for drawing walks, might not fully exploit Medina's control issues, which could be a small silver lining for Oakland.

On the other side, Baltimore counters with lefty Cade Povich. Povich has been serviceable with a 1-2 record and a 4.05 ERA. However, his 5.56 xFIP indicates some luck has been on his side as well. The Athletics’ offense, which ranks 2nd in MLB for strikeouts, might struggle against Povich despite his low strikeout rate (14.9%).

Offensively, the Athletics have been lackluster, ranking 25th overall. They have shown some power, ranking 7th in home runs, but struggle in other areas such as batting average (28th) and stolen bases (23rd). Brent Rooker has been a bright spot recently, hitting .412 with a 1.238 OPS over his last seven games.

The Orioles boast the 2nd-best offense in the league, featuring a balanced attack with the 6th-best team batting average and the most home runs in MLB. Ryan O’Hearn has been on fire, posting a .412 average and a 1.180 OPS over his last seven games.

With the Orioles as heavy favorites at -175, they have a significant edge. This strong Baltimore lineup against a shaky Oakland pitcher could see the Orioles continue their winning ways, making it a tough night for the Athletics.

Quick Takes Baltimore Orioles:

The Baltimore Orioles infield defense profiles as the 2nd-best out of all the teams playing today.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.

Cedric Mullins II has struggled with his Barrel% of late; his 5.3% seasonal rate has decreased to 0% in the last week's worth of games.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

The Baltimore Orioles projected offense ranks as the 3rd-strongest on the slate today in terms of overall hitting ability.

• A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Quick Takes Oakland Athletics:

Luis Medina has averaged 15 outs per GS this year, ranking in the 25th percentile.

• A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.

Brent Rooker has seen a sizeable improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs this season; just compare his 97.3-mph average to last season's 94.9-mph mark.

• Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

The Oakland Athletics bullpen profiles as the 8th-best in Major League Baseball, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Oakland Athletics have hit the Game Total Under in 30 of their last 47 games (+12.15 Units / 24% ROI)
• The Baltimore Orioles have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 44 of their last 69 games (+14.85 Units / 18% ROI)
• Gunnar Henderson has hit the Home Runs Over in 6 of his last 17 games (+12.15 Units / 71% ROI)

Baltimore Orioles vs Oakland Athletics Prediction

Final Score: Baltimore Orioles 5.17 vs Oakland Athletics 4.18

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