Baltimore Orioles at New York Yankees Best Bet – 9/25/2024

• Date: September 25, 2024
• Venue: Yankee Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Zach Eflin - Orioles
  • Nestor Cortes - Yankees

Betting Odds

Baltimore Orioles vs New York Yankees Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Baltimore Orioles vs New York Yankees Betting Preview

As the New York Yankees prepare to host the Baltimore Orioles at Yankee Stadium on September 25, 2024, the stakes are high in this American League East matchup. The Yankees, boasting a strong 92-65 record, are having an impressive season, while the Orioles, with an 87-70 record, are also performing well. This game marks the second in the series between these divisional rivals, with Baltimore winning the series opener on Tuesday.

The Yankees are projected to send left-handed pitcher Nestor Cortes to the mound. Despite his 9-10 record, Cortes holds a respectable 3.77 ERA and ranks as the 44th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced-stat Power Rankings. On the flip side, the Orioles will counter with right-hander Zach Eflin, who sports a 10-9 record and a solid 3.53 ERA. Eflin is ranked 33rd among starting pitchers, suggesting a slightly better season performance compared to Cortes.

Both teams bring their offensive firepower to the fore. The Yankees' offense is ranked 3rd overall and tops MLB in home runs, while the Orioles aren't far behind with the 6th best offense and 2nd in home runs. The matchup is further nuanced by Cortes being a high-flyball pitcher, which may play into the Orioles' strength in power hitting. Meanwhile, the Yankees' patience at the plate, ranking 1st in walks, could counteract Eflin's control, known for his low walk rate.

THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, predicts the Yankees as favorites with a 61% win probability, surpassing the implied odds of 57%. This, coupled with a high projected run total of 4.83 for the Yankees versus 4.10 for the Orioles, suggests New York could have the edge in what promises to be a competitive showdown. As the Yankees aim to solidify their playoff positioning, this game will be crucial in maintaining their dominance in the division race.

Quick Takes Baltimore Orioles:

Zach Eflin has utilized his curveball 8.3% less often this year (18.2%) than he did last year (26.5%).

• Because curveballs are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use them less often may see less success as a result, particularly if he uses his fastball more instead.

Ryan Mountcastle is projected to bat 6th on the lineup card in this game, which would be a downgrade from his 83% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this season.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Baltimore Orioles batters jointly rank among the best in baseball this year (3rd-) as far as their 89.7-mph average exit velocity.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Quick Takes New York Yankees:

The New York Yankees outfield defense grades out as the 3rd-worst out of all the teams on the slate today.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.

Aaron Judge has been hot in recent games, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 96-mph to 98.2-mph over the past 14 days.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Gleyber Torres has a 93rd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37.6%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them in the direction of the league's 7th-shallowest RF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Over in 64 of their last 111 games (+16.05 Units / 13% ROI)
• The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Team Total Under in 56 of their last 92 games (+16.25 Units / 15% ROI)
• Gunnar Henderson has hit the Home Runs Over in 8 of his last 37 games (+11.00 Units / 30% ROI)

Baltimore Orioles vs New York Yankees Prediction

Final Score: Baltimore Orioles 4.27 vs New York Yankees 4.74

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