Baltimore Orioles at Miami Marlins Prediction For 7/23/2024

Baltimore Orioles vs Miami Marlins Details

• Date: July 23, 2024
• Venue: LoanDepot Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Albert Suarez - Orioles
  • Kyle Tyler - Marlins

Betting Odds

Baltimore Orioles vs Miami Marlins Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Baltimore Orioles vs Miami Marlins Betting Preview

As the Miami Marlins and Baltimore Orioles gear up for their July 23, 2024 clash at LoanDepot Park, we find two teams heading in very different directions. The Orioles, who hold an impressive 60-39 record, are having a stellar season, while the Marlins, with a dismal 35-65 record, find themselves languishing near the bottom of the standings.

In this Interleague matchup, the Marlins will send Kyle Tyler to the mound. Tyler, a right-handed pitcher, has had a rough go this season. Despite a solid 3.38 ERA, his 4.90 xFIP suggests he’s been fortunate and might regress. Tyler has a high ground-ball rate (56%) that could help counter the Orioles’ power-heavy lineup, which leads MLB with 157 home runs. However, with a projected 2.8 earned runs and 5.1 hits allowed over an average of 4.8 innings, Tyler faces a daunting task.

Opposing him will be Albert Suarez for the Orioles. Suarez has been effective with a 2.82 ERA but, like Tyler, his 4.69 xFIP points to potential regression. Suarez's high-flyball tendencies might not be as problematic against a Marlins lineup that ranks 30th in home runs. Suarez projects to pitch 5.2 innings, allowing 2.7 earned runs on average.

Offensively, the contrast between these teams is stark. The Orioles boast the 2nd best offense overall, ranking 1st in home runs and 8th in batting average. Conversely, the Marlins have struggled mightily, ranking 29th overall and last in home runs. Jake Burger has been a bright spot for Miami over the last week, hitting .333 with two homers and a 1.278 OPS in four games. For Baltimore, their offensive firepower continues to be a significant advantage.

While the betting lines favor the Orioles (-170, 61% implied win probability), THE BAT X—the leading MLB projection system—gives the Marlins a 46% win probability. This disparity suggests there may be value in betting on the Marlins as an underdog, particularly given their bullpen's #10 ranking compared to Baltimore's #17.

With Tyler’s ground-ball approach against Baltimore’s potent lineup and Suarez’s flyball tendencies facing Miami’s weak power game, this contest could be more competitive than it appears at first glance. As the first game in their series, it will set the tone for what promises to be an intriguing matchup.

Quick Takes Baltimore Orioles:

Albert Suarez's high usage rate of his fastball (53% this year) is likely weakening his results, considering they are generally much less effective than breaking or off-speed pitches.

• Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so pitchers who rely too heavily on them tend to be less effective than they otherwise would be.

Adley Rutschman has been cold lately, with his seasonal exit velocity of 88.6-mph dropping to 82.6-mph over the past two weeks.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

The 2nd-best projected offense of all teams today in terms of overall hitting skill is that of the Baltimore Orioles.

• A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Quick Takes Miami Marlins:

The Miami Marlins infield defense projects as the 3rd-weakest out of every team playing today.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.

Baltimore's #3-ranked outfield defense of all teams on the slate poses a formidable challenge for Xavier Edwards, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.

• This player's skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team's defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Miami Marlins' bullpen ranks as the 10th-best among all teams in Major League Baseball.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 49 of their last 82 games (+13.40 Units / 14% ROI)
• The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Run Line in 20 of their last 29 away games (+13.65 Units / 39% ROI)
• Anthony Santander has hit the RBIs Over in 15 of his last 25 games (+13.05 Units / 52% ROI)

Baltimore Orioles vs Miami Marlins Prediction

Final Score: Baltimore Orioles 5.22 vs Miami Marlins 4.57

Stay informed with the most recent MLB news and our analytics-driven MLB picks and predictions all season long.