Baltimore Orioles at Miami Marlins Pick & Prediction – 7/25/2024

Baltimore Orioles vs Miami Marlins Details

• Date: July 25, 2024
• Venue: LoanDepot Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Corbin Burnes - Orioles
  • Roddery Munoz - Marlins

Betting Odds

Baltimore Orioles vs Miami Marlins Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Baltimore Orioles vs Miami Marlins Betting Preview

The Miami Marlins and Baltimore Orioles face off on July 25, 2024, in the third game of their series at LoanDepot Park. The Marlins, enduring a challenging season with a 37-65 record, are struggling, while the Orioles, with a strong 60-41 record, are excelling. Miami's starting pitcher, Roddery Munoz, has had a rough year, holding a 1-5 record and a 5.14 ERA. Advanced metrics suggest he's been fortunate, with a 5.89 xERA indicating potential for even poorer performance. Munoz's high 41% flyball rate could be problematic against Baltimore's powerful lineup, which leads MLB with 157 home runs.

On the other hand, Corbin Burnes will take the mound for the Orioles. Burnes has been stellar, boasting a 10-4 record and a 2.38 ERA, making him one of the top pitchers in MLB. Despite his success, his 3.38 xFIP suggests some regression might be in store. Burnes' high groundball rate (50%) could neutralize Miami's already weak power, as the Marlins are ranked 29th in home runs.

Offensively, the Marlins have struggled across the board, ranking 29th in overall offense and home runs, and 20th in batting average. Their best hitter over the last week, Vidal Brujan, has been a bright spot, hitting .500 with a 1.350 OPS. However, the Marlins' offense will need more than a single hot bat to overcome their deficiencies.

In contrast, the Orioles' offense is thriving, ranked 2nd overall and 1st in home runs. Colton Cowser has been on fire recently, hitting .412 with a 1.206 OPS over the last week, adding to Baltimore's offensive prowess.

THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, gives the Marlins a 35% win probability, higher than the betting market's implied probability of 30%. Despite being massive underdogs, there could be value in betting on Miami due to the public's reluctance to back struggling teams.

Quick Takes Baltimore Orioles:

Corbin Burnes’s fastball spin rate over his last 3 games started (2659 rpm) has been quite a bit worse than than his seasonal rate (2730 rpm).

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his spin rate will likely see improved results.

Ryan O'Hearn has been hot recently, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 90.4-mph to 99.8-mph in the last week's worth of games.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Anthony Santander pulls many of his flyballs (41.2% — 99th percentile) and will have to hit them out towards baseball's 4th-deepest RF fences today.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Miami Marlins:

Roddery Munoz is an extreme flyball pitcher (36.3% FB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) and has the benefit of pitching in the #24 HR venue among all major league stadiums today.

• This pitcher's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Josh Bell is an extreme groundball batter and faces the strong infield defense of Baltimore (#2-best of the day).

• This player's skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team's defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

It may be best to expect better numbers for the Miami Marlins offense going forward, considering that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) views them as the 2nd-unluckiest offense in baseball this year.

• When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Game Trends

• The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 25 of their last 38 games at home (+13.00 Units / 31% ROI)
• The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Run Line in 28 of their last 46 away games (+12.70 Units / 22% ROI)
• Jake Burger has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 21 of his last 30 games (+9.40 Units / 25% ROI)

Baltimore Orioles vs Miami Marlins Prediction

Final Score: Baltimore Orioles 5.87 vs Miami Marlins 4

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