Baltimore Orioles at Miami Marlins Pick For 7/24/2024

Baltimore Orioles vs Miami Marlins Details

• Date: July 24, 2024
• Venue: LoanDepot Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Chayce McDermott - Orioles
  • Edward Cabrera - Marlins

Betting Odds

Baltimore Orioles vs Miami Marlins Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Baltimore Orioles vs Miami Marlins Betting Preview

The Miami Marlins will host the Baltimore Orioles on July 24, 2024, at LoanDepot Park in the second game of their series. Despite their dismal season, the Marlins pulled off an upset against the Orioles yesterday, winning 6-3 as significant underdogs. This victory was a rare bright spot in a season where the Marlins have struggled mightily, sitting at 36-65, while the Orioles boast a strong 60-40 record.

On the mound, the Marlins will start Edward Cabrera, who has had a tough year with a 7.36 ERA and a 1-3 record over eight starts. However, his 3.85 xFIP suggests he's been unlucky and could perform better moving forward. Cabrera's high walk rate (13.1 BB%) might not be as big of a disadvantage against the Orioles, who rank 5th in least walks in MLB, potentially giving him an edge.

The Orioles counter with Chayce McDermott, who will hope to take advantage of the Marlins' lack of power, as they rank last in MLB with just 83 home runs.

Offensively, the Marlins rank 29th overall and struggle in several categories, including batting average (23rd) and home runs (30th). In contrast, the Orioles are one of the top offensive teams, ranking 3rd overall, 8th in batting average, and 1st in home runs. Gunnar Henderson has been a standout for Baltimore, hitting .287 with 28 home runs and a .946 OPS.

Despite yesterday's upset, the Orioles are favored today with a current moneyline of -140, translating to an implied win probability of 56%. THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, gives the Orioles a 58% chance of winning, making them a solid bet. The Marlins, with a moneyline of +120 and an implied win probability of 44%, are projected to score 3.77 runs, while the Orioles are expected to score 4.75 runs. This game offers an intriguing matchup, especially considering the Marlins' recent surprising win.

Quick Takes Baltimore Orioles:

Ryan Mountcastle has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this season (90% of the time), but he is projected to hit 7th in the lineup in this game.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Anthony Santander pulls a lot of his flyballs (41.2% — 99th percentile) and will be challenged by baseball's 4th-deepest RF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Miami Marlins:

Edward Cabrera's higher usage percentage of his secondary pitches this season (71.1% vs. 63.1% last year) ought to work in his favor consider they are generally much more effective than fastballs.

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

Nick Fortes has been cold in recent games, with his seasonal exit velocity of 84.9-mph dropping to 81.3-mph in the last two weeks' worth of games.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

The Miami Marlins have been the unluckiest offense in the majors this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to perform better in the future

• When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Game Trends

• The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 29 of their last 46 games at home (+12.60 Units / 25% ROI)
• The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Run Line in 29 of their last 48 away games (+13.05 Units / 22% ROI)
• Jesus Sanchez has hit the Home Runs Over in 7 of his last 21 games at home (+27.30 Units / 130% ROI)

Baltimore Orioles vs Miami Marlins Prediction

Final Score: Baltimore Orioles 4.74 vs Miami Marlins 3.76

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